Re: time for me to pick one
in response to
by
posted on
Oct 13, 2010 05:57PM
I used to hold NOT but as the project advanced the dilution has taken the upside out of NOT.... With 176MM shares @ $1.30 this is a 200 MM market cap on a Billion dollar resource
PRB on the other hand has only 34MM shares at $.70 = 25MM market cap
The 43 101 resource of 8.4 MM tones using the Cliffs amount paid / offer works out to about $12.00/ tone thus Probe should reflect about $100MM market cap for the compliant resource already included in the 43 101 or about $3.00/ share
The most recent holes should at least double that resource as indicated in the statments in the news release.
The only things in play in probe right now is the Chromite resource value and the Goldex royalty which could put substantual cash into the till asap.
Upside potential for probe is considerable and should be reflected soon.
If I was Cliffs I would put KWG on the back burner and concentrate on PRB with the high ground, the outcroping and potentially 50 % of the deposit. KWG could be delt with at a later date... no urgency to fulfill that deal as Cliffs could just advance into production leaving KWG to come up with their share of costs.
PRB on the other hand is stratigic in that it could be put into production on it`s own as the deposit starts at surface... Near zero strip ratio..... Should another sutor come in on probe it could compromise Cliffs ability to put their portion into production.... PRB has the trump card here.... and that is being shown in how tightly the shares are being held.
If Cliffs acts now they could take a run at probe for $3... or so.... If they wait they could end up in a biding war and see their prize compromised and end up paying a very high premium to consolidate the deposit.---------------------------------------------------------
Ideally from the shareholders viewpoint;
1) Goldex royalty is brought into the open.... how much , how often, how much in the future... This will kick the stock price up a bit.... Compare to CAA and Hud Bay royalty Depending on the amount this could put a buck on itès own to the PRB share price.... Problem is at this time it has no defined value.
2) New guy enters the fold with a pre-emptive bid on the Chromite say 2 to 3 bucks
3) Cliffs is forced to up the anti..... and then the fun begins as PRB is put into play
4) Palmer states that the new 43 101 should substantuall increase the resource to .... 15 to 25 MM tones
5) all the other PRB assets are meaningless at this time.... LSG jv is a distraction as they have achieved their goal of tying up the PRB asset. They wont do anything to prove up value for PRB as they are allready the operator.... When they need it the gold will still be there.
6) if these things happen in this order maximum value will be recieved to the PRB shareholders
JMHO