Coop, I cannot even pretend to understand what is going on. I have another take on Pobe though. I checked the TSX and here is the short position on Probe.

I find it interesting. When you consider Probe and FNC have roughly the same shares outstanding, FNC who is about to drill(so everyone is saying) is trading at almost 4 times PRB's value. But I also note that FNC's short position is as follows:

Short Volume As Of 380,073 15/Jun/2008 383,580 31/May/2008 383,632 15/May/2008 Obviously there are some not willing to take the chance probe is going down.