Re: Buyer at $1.85 today
in response to
by
posted on
Mar 01, 2013 11:46PM
Multi-Billion Dollar Agreement Signed With Oman
Lebnjb - I read your piece with much trepidation ... until I thought about it. I'm no valuation expert, but I don't see how anyone can obtain any kind of valuation of a company like this in this particular situation by looking at Level 2 information. The only value Omagine has is in its future. It has no revenues right now ... just expenses. So how your friend arrives at a specific number ($1.80) is unclear.
I, too, have family and friends who have told me exactly what your friend told you: that I'm too wedded to this stock and should have bailed a long time ago. That doesn't mean they're right. Or wrong.
I keep going back to the info in the company's past reports. This is a future book value play. And using a very conservative $300m figure for the value of the land that will be contributed to LLC, along with the $70m and something like $9m or $10m for other things that, quite frankly, I can't remember the details on, ... all lead to a BV in the mid-teens. And that's all before factoring in future cash flows from the projected sales of residential and other units. It's those projected cash flows that gets the value of the company into the $20s. Should the market determine that a multiple should be applied, then you get even more. BUT, strictly from a BV and future cash flow basis, you get those higher valuations.
As for the comments by other investors that hold millions of shares of stock ... did he speak with them? Why would they sell most of their shares after the DA is signed? I do expect there will be some selling as many of us will be looking to get our initial investment back (especially the under water investors). But isn't it reasonable to assume that there will be more buyers looking for relatively scarce shares to buy ... AT THAT POINT IN TIME? Ours is a very thinly traded company with a very, very small float. Once the DA gets signed and there are no longer any stalling actions ... only reports of things moving forward ... this will no longer be a penny stock (under $5) and will be sought after by more investors. We don't need a deluge of large numbers of new investors to raise the price. Just some more ... and they will come from Europe, USA and Middle East ... probably a lot from the ME.
So I wouldn't lose too much sleep over his comments. We'll either hear good news this month or will have yet another delay of a few months ... as Charlie explained in his last 8k.
Cheers!