You, I believe, are absolutely correct in your conjecture under the typical circumstances you outline - when everyone is of the same opinion, it's time to do something else.  Sometimes, however, the crowd can be correct, as it would be in leaving a building when a fire alarm goes off.     

I carefully considered this before changing my investing focus as I believe that the alarms are sounding.  Meanwhile, who is to say that gold will not suffer a downturn, perhaps even a serious one before it starts rising to new levels - it is down today.  Everyone has different tolerances toward speculative moves (like buying gold and gold shares) during changing times, which we are in.  For my part and from what I've read about real money, fiat money, and inflation over several decades now, I'd rather risk being too early than too late, especially when the paper money printing presses all over the world for the first time ever are overheating from running 24/7. 

...just my opinion.  Good luck to you.