The only thing that matters here is drilling.  If that happens soon, and if results are as we expect, history tells me that they are very highly likely to make conditions in broader markets irrelevant.  

So, a bet here holds two parts.  1) Will drilling bring value, and 2) will it happen soon enough to make a difference?  

While I belive the value is there, I don't know about the "if" or "when" of drilling. 

VP