[Copied from a post of mine appearing elseshere last Saturday.]

Some thoughts for a Saturday morning -

1) Some have observed/suggested that the Fed does all it can in support of whomever is the current occupant of the White House. This means that if they see something ugly on the horizon, they will do what they can to delay the onset of that event, should an election be near at hand.

2) If this is so, it lends support to the fact that recessions (or worse), most often come about in the first term of a new administration, usually a Republican one (and I will not get into the fiscal/political reasons behind that).

3) Then, the effect of fighting that bad turn in the economy will take long into the next term (or after) to be widely felt.

Having said these things, the last Bush administration was an exception to these tendencies. Not only did the Financial Crisis come on late in the second term, but the recovery (if you want to call it that) under the present administration has been the worst on record, and at present seems to be failing - look at reports out this week.

Now, if the Fed can keep control of things for now, what's this mean going forward?

1) No recognition of a recession, or turn in that direction until after the election;
2) no increase in interest rates before the election (if at all);
3) odds suggesting a Republican will be going to the While House; *
4) there will be no near term relief for those most damaged by the recession (which will come at some point).

Got gold?

VP

* If not, Democrats will suffer widely in all future election cycles for years to come, not regaining control of congress or the While House, IMO.