gempicker's assessment of Hay Mountain: two posts copied from elsewhere
posted on
Oct 24, 2015 01:16PM
Combining Classic Mineral Exploration with State of the Art Technology
Two excellent posts. First, my response, telling him why I think he's right, then his two posts:
This is exactly my take on the Hay Mountain situation. I trust Jim Briscoe's intuition, cultivated by working with masters. It's not a trivial thing to work with people such as Richard and Courtright. It profoundly modifies one's way of seeing things, inducing patterns to emerge from raw fact into imagination, and then speculating about the meaning of those patterns. Exploration geology is as much an art as it is a science.
Michael Polayni, in his book, Personal Knowledge, says that there is no way to become a great chemist without working in a laboratory with a great chemist. Polanyi's ideas have influenced my way of thinking about entrepreneurial geologists.
It is easy to discount complexity by ruthless application of simplistic reductionist bits of science. But, the magic is in the penetration of the complexity by a prepared imagination.
I listen to JB's slow and sometimes awkward interview and think: this guy has seen something important, he has been well prepared to see it, and I'm going to stick with my bet on him.
*** gempicker's first post ***
Geology strategy..
I am no geologist. However, in my opinion, LBSR's strategy with HM has made logical sense and their efforts are a progression.
The original concept was a deep seated target judged by a combination of ZTEM, aeromagnetics and geochemistry. Given the size of this large geological anomaly (6+ sq miles), I think their approach made sense.
Over the past few years as they began to understand the lack of interest in funding deep seated exploration, they shifted focus and began identifying more outcrops and oxidized copper as announced about a year and a half ago in press. This supports shallow targeting as has been prevalent in SE AZ past. I don't find this progression odd, nor do I think it is "easy" to find gossan over such a vast and varied landscape. Now that they have identified gossan in combination with 3D ZTEM and corrected past geological maps, one can sense a real excitement in the language and the comparison to Bisbee, and the increased expectation of positive drill cores is very very real.
What is odd is effort to deny the logic behind this methodical approach.
*** gempicker's second post ***
Investment strategy..
As someone mentioned here the speculative opportunity is now.
LBSR has been telling us about the shallow potential and targeting approach for quite sometime. Surely, this possibility/optional approach was presented alongside their deep seated approach to investors late last year and early this year.
Gross indicated in a response that they are progressing towards drilling "temporally" and are looking to take advantage of smaller investment entities.
The 3D ZTEM in conjunction with a better understanding of the geology maps (ore hosted rock formation not as deep as once thought) as well as the identified gossan is really exciting. Reviewing the nearby Bisbee history, and the potential for high grade near surface deposit is very exciting and very real. Savvy investors and "watchers" know this.
This in conjunction with the trading pattern indicates to me that there has been and continues to be methodical accumulation of the converted notes. Roughly a million dollars since January, IMO. I think it is quite possible that those accumulating could be the same entities that come in with private placements or HM LLC equity financing to get the initial 2 holes drilled. It would also be logical for LBSR to secure some type of LOI for the other 2 million or less so as to move directly to hole #3 upon initial success.
At a current market valuation of 2 million, the speculative value can and will rise rapidly as drilling becomes real. This company traded at a 10-25 million valuation from 2011-2014 during the HM geological work phase. Now that they are approaching drilling, a quick recovery to that level and beyond is very plausible. Let alone if they intersect high grade ore, then the market valuation will really climb.
From a speculative standpoint this is ideal. Convertible debt is minimal, cost to get the initial 2 holes drilled is minimal and well within this companies past capabilities and precedents.
1 penny is 15 million cap, 2 pennies 30 million... Consider the past, consider the opportunity and we can very well see these levels before they intersect high grade ore. After that the valuation can go crazy as it did with the NAK JV intent.
A high grade deposit with associated geo work indicating a massive reserve expansion potential, in logistical superior Arizona.... It will attract attention....
My investment thesis inclines me to continue accumulation, weekly. Speculative risk reward is exactly how I like it. GLTA.