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Message: Re: Markets -
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Feb 26, 2015 10:58AM

Nice analysis on the "pro" side for miners & mining stocks.

http://thedailygold.com/are-gold-miners-leading-gold/

EXTRACT (with emphasis added):

At present the miners are just about four years into a bear market that is undoubtedly the second worst of the past 70 years. Last August the miners were eight months into a rally. If the bear had ended in December 2013 then it would have only been slightly more than two and a half years old (versus four years now).

Two other things bode well for continued leadership from the miners. First, the collapse in Oil is a huge boon for mining companies. Energy can account for 25% or even as high as 30% of a miner’s costs. Second, foreign currency weakness is positive for some companies. This has to be examined on a case by case basis. If the Gold price in US$ is stable but foreign currencies such as the loonie lose value then it is another benefit to the mining company (that pays its workers in loonies).

The fact that the bear market in miners began five months before the bear in Gold and is nearly four years old gives us reason to anticipate leadership from the miners in 2015. Macro developments in the energy and currency markets have catalyzed a better fundamental environment for miners and their potential to outperform Gold. In the scenario that Gold makes a new low, GDX would have to decline 22% to test its daily low. Because of the stronger fundamentals for miners and the extreme long-term oversold condition, I don’t think miners would make a new low. That means the next leg higher could take miners into a new bull market.


Feb 28, 2015 02:04PM

Feb 28, 2015 02:04PM

Mar 02, 2015 09:37AM
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