Re: More (BIG) mining news from the region...
in response to
by
posted on
Sep 09, 2014 04:29PM
Combining Classic Mineral Exploration with State of the Art Technology
And the NPV of Excelsior as of February was 1.24 billion. I bring this up because the extraction process is the same between them and Curis.
Now, if you put numbers aside for a moment, I think we are talking apples and oranges. The time lines are different, the costs are different, and the environmental risks are different, not to mention the scale - perhaps a hundred billion dollars at Hay Mountain.
Besides, this feels like Curis was in very urgent need of a 2 million dollar cash infusion, noting too that Taseko already owned part of the company - so not an open market deal -, and the share price got knocked down 65 percent in the last 11 months.
I guess what I'm trying to say is it is too early to tell what a 25 percent stake in Hay Mountain may be worth in 2-3 years. Assuming LBSR has at present 100 percent control over the deposit, and assuming JB is correct in "at least 100 billion dollars" in production 7 years from the start of drilling, AND assuming early drilling supports the in situ valuation guestimate, then, yes, we are talking big bucks.
A few years ago, I was looking at LBSR eventually being worth one percent of 100 billion dollars, if the best case scenario is proven, and before we gave much thought to REEs. Since then I come to realize that a further stock issuance may be required, but (and as you suggest) the company should be able to hold much more than a 1 percent interest by the time they cash in their chips and move on to other projects, ...and REEs remain a wild card. So, 25 percent is a reasonable guess for now (2-3 years out from the start of drilling). What might that be worth? Dimes to a dollar, IMO, with good returns from drilling.
By the way, Curis was up marginally today, while Excelsior took a 15 percent leap.
Cheers,
VP