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You may not have heard of Ug99, but, if its rapid spread continues unchecked, you will not only be hearing about it, you’ll be paying for it. Ug99 is a fast-spreading strain of a wheat fungus that causes stem rust — a harvest-destroying plant disease — and is now being carried by the wind around the world and threatening to devastate the world’s wheat harvest.

Dear Tom,

The Los Angeles Times described the fungus this month as a “time bomb” that could “wipe out more than 80 percent of the world's wheat as it spreads from Africa.”

The world has had over a decade of excellent harvests, so we are overdue for a crop failure. That may come in the form of Ug99. The problem began 10 years ago when a new stem rust fungus was discovered in Uganda, a fungus that attacked wheat varieties that had been resistant to stem rust for many years. Scientists labeled the fungus “Ug” (for Uganda) 99 and watched in horror as the airborne fungus spread to Kenya in 2001 and Yemen in 2007.

Then, carried by the wind, Ug99 jumped the Red Sea, the Persian Gulf and Saudi Arabia to land 700 miles away in western Iran. Everywhere it goes, it damages up to 70 percent of the wheat crop and, according to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization, Ug99 has become more destructive since it started to spread.

To stem this path of agricultural destruction, wheat breeders are going to cross a newly developed strain with commercial varieties. But success isn’t assured, they are in a race against time, and the new strains will still need to be proven as a cure.

“Ug99 is really tough because so much of the world’s wheat, including ours domestically, is susceptible to this, and it is dangerous,” Dr. Michael Edwards, research leader at the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Cereal Crops Research Unit in Fargo, N.D., said in published reports.

The last time stem rust plagued North America was in the 1950s. It ruined 42 percent of the North Dakota crop and smaller portions of the rest of the U.S. crop.

On a global level, five of the countries now in Ug99’s path produce about 160 million acres of wheat annually, or about 25 percent of the world wheat crop. About 80 percent of the varieties available there are based on the SR24 gene, which actually makes stem rust more resistant! According to a United Nations’ report, the fungus “recently invaded Iran faster than predicted and could cause mass starvation if it hits India before new resistant strains are ready.”

The saving grace for the U.S. is the vast distance from current Ug99 outbreaks. However, every one of the wheat varieties raised in North Dakota, South Dakota and Minnesota are based on that same SR24 gene that Ug99 is destroying in African and the Middle East.

Science to the Rescue

Now, 17 international research organizations have joined forces to find an answer for Ug99. But the real solution may come from the science labs of America’s seed companies. Biotech is already making it possible to breed crops with beneficial traits from other species. This will lead to new varieties with higher yields, reduced fertilizer needs, and drought tolerance. Now, America’s plant breeders may be able to beat this virus, as well as other problems facing the world’s food supply.