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Message: Yesterdays news from Mosaic bodes well for us!!!

Yesterdays news from Mosaic bodes well for us!!!

posted on Jan 06, 2009 05:06AM
Fertilizer Producers and Explorers in play for 2009-2010

Just announced after the market closed yesterday, Mosaic Co., # 2 Potash producer in North America behind Potash Corp beat the analyst expectations, while falling in line with all other global producers of Potash in announcing production cuts to reduce supply.
Market Report -- In Play (MOS)
January 5, 2009 4:25 PM ET http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/pro...

Farmers have or are being instructed to hold off on Potash fertilizer purchases in order to achieve better prices, however, with the strength and resolve of the Potash producers (plus the fact that there are only a small handful of them globally as opposed to Oil producers), collusion amongst the producers is much more likely to achieve their goal of holding or continuing to spike Potash prices globally. Some farmers have even planned to reduce or eliminate the use of Potash this planting season in order to conserve capital, at the expense of reducing yields significantly. Current global stocks of grains require a bumper crop season just to meet current world demand. Any supply disruption caused by ave.- below ave. crop yield will result in a significant shortfall for Q4 2009, and a potential global famine conditions in 3rd world countries, parts of India, South America and Asia in 2010. Therefore, while investors have already priced in reduced top and bottom line revenues for the majority of 2009, the significant upside to margin growth in Q4 '09, and 2010 provides a significant and powerful uptick potential. Another key is the potential that the Obama government will step up their resolve for clean energy initiatives - i.e. biofuels - which under the republican Bush government, never really got the support required to cause a lasting impact on grain consumption. My belief is this will change under a democratic government in the US, and biofuel consumption of grain will skyrocket, causing unpresidented demand for Potash fertilizers to increase yield, based on increased demand.

Bottom line; Fertilizer explorers and producers are in play, moving towards normalized 2007 pricing of equities (based on 2007 numbers) through Q1-Q4 2008, then into uncharted bull market territory in 2010.

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