Unlike nearly every other commodity, potash supplies actually are constrained right now, and capacity upgrades anywhere in the world are costly and slow, the two scariest words a CFO can hear right now. Don’t expect high potash prices to produce a supply glut anytime soon. When global capacity does eventually double around 2015, Potash Corp. will have contributed about half of it.

Last time I checked, the world still needed food, the world’s grain silos were still low, the world’s arable land still shrinking, its nutrients depleting, and its population growing. I’m wary of the short-term volatility and noise, but I refuse to let go of the secular trends driving sustained, higher fertilizer prices.