Some interesting points from the CEO of Potash from yesterday's two hour analyst meeting:
- The CEO sees strong demand for all fertilizers
- Higher prices for at least the next 5 years
- India is spending 70 cents of every new dollar earned on food
- DAP producers without their own supply of phosphate , are paying $800/ton for phosphate rock, triple the previous 5 year average
-Demand for phosphoric acid should remain strong for the next 3-4 years
- On a long term basis, access to phosphate rock is a key issue, and companies with their own supply have a significant advantage
- The CEO also stated something very important: "Recent uncertainty in global markets has brought our valuation multiples to historically low levels that do not reflect the earnings potential and fundamentals of our business"
We will find out much more on October 1 when Mosaic, the largest producer of phosphate, reports earnings. I'm sure that the 800/ton price the CEO of Potash spoke about was for small shipments and we should probably not use that as a real price relative to LGDI.
I'll be back after the Mosaic conference call on October 1st.