Is the Obama Honeymoon Now Over?

Posted By Bobby Eberle On July 22, 2009 at 7:05 am

The Associated Press describes Barack Obama's first months as president as a wave of "hope and optimism that washed over the country." The wording, of course, is misleading. Since almost half of the country did not vote for him, I surely would not say that "the country" was singing kumbaya when he was sworn into office.

Regardless of the wording or how the media choose to describe Obama, the reality of his presidency is starting to sink in. Hope and change? Americans are starting to see that what they hoped for was not this kind of change. As the latest polls are revealing, as with any good wave, this one is starting to crash.

As the AP notes:

An Associated Press-GfK Poll shows that a majority of Americans are back to thinking that the country is headed in the wrong direction after a fleeting period in which more thought it was on the right track.

Obama still has a solid 55 percent approval rating - better than Bill Clinton and about even with George W. Bush six months into their presidencies - but there are growing doubts about whether he can succeed at some of the biggest items on his to-do list. And there is a growing sense that he is trying to tackle too much too soon.

The AP poll finds that "the number of people who think Obama can improve the economy is down a sobering 19 percentage points from the euphoric days just before his inauguration." Euphoric days? Again... can't they just write about the poll without indulging in such hyperbole? It's ridiculous.

Ditto for expectations about creating jobs. Also down significantly: the share of people who think he can reduce the deficit, remove troops from Iraq and improve respect for the U.S. around the world, all slipping 15 points.

Significant in the poll is the fact that although Obama's approval rating was down 9 percent among all Americans, it was down 20 percent among independents. As the AP reports, "The increase in those who think the country is headed in the wrong direction came mostly from independents and Democrats." If Obama is losing ground among "those that got him here," he is thankfully going to have a harder time passing more of his socialist agenda. Democrats in conservative districts are going to be less likely to put their own futures on the line for a president who is out of touch with the voters.

In a new USA Today/Gallup Poll, Obama has an approval rating of 55%. This "puts him 10th among the 12 post-World War II presidents at this point in their tenures. When he took office, he ranked seventh."

Here are some highlights:

* By 49%-47%, those surveyed disapprove of how he is handling the economy, a turnaround from his 55%-42% approval in May. The steepest drop came from conservative and moderate Democrats.

* By 50%-44%, they disapprove of how he is handling health care policy.

* A 59% majority say his proposals call for too much government spending and 52% say they call for too much expansion of government power.

* Expectations of the economy's turnaround are souring a bit. In February, the average prediction for a recovery was 4.1 years; now it's 5.5 years.

* The administration's stimulus package isn't seen as a benefit by most whether viewed in the short term or the long term, in how it will impact the country or individuals. Only a third think it will help their own family's finances in the long run.

Pollster Scott Rasmussen calculates what he calls the "Presidential Approval Index." It is created by asking the job approval question to respondents and subtracting the percentage who strongly disapprove from respondents who strongly approve of the job the president is doing. In Tuesday's daily tracking, 29% of respondents strong approve of the job Obama is doing as president while 34% strongly disapprove. This yields a Presidential Approval Index of -5.

As is usual with statistics, what's more telling are the trends. Take a look at Rasmussen's chart of Presidential Approval Index tracking. The day following his inauguration, Obama's PAI was +28. He remained in the 20s throughout the remainder of January, and solidly in the teens through February and early March. But, by mid-March, Obama was in single digits, and now he is consistently in the negatives.

These poll results do not mean anything on their own. They simply offer a glimpse... an opportunity that perhaps that tide can be turned with legislation and the upcoming 2010 elections. What works against us in the mean time, of course, are the numbers of Democrats in Congress. With such solid majorities, Democrats are going to have to really see bad numbers to cause them to step back from their agenda.

Perhaps this is the start. Perhaps Americans are starting to see the light and beginning to hope for a different kind of change.