Though Stymied So Far, Republicans See Reason for Hope

For Congressional Republicans, these first 100 days of the Obama administration must feel more like 1,000.

Driven deep into the minority, Republicans have run up against a highly popular Democratic president and are chafing under the rein of emboldened House and Senate Democrats. They have been marginalized, criticized and categorized as the Party of No.

They are groping for an effective strategy for countering President Obama, lacked a dominant message or messenger and have had trouble breaking through even with themes that in the past might resonate. On Friday, they officially lost a special House election in a more conservative swath of New York State that by all rights they should have won. They are on the verge of being down 59-41 in the Senate, a whisker from mathematical elimination from filibuster contention.

Only 615 more days until 2010 and a new Congress.

“In President Obama’s first 100 days, we haven’t found our voice,” said Senator Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, the No. 3 Republican in the Senate. “But in the first 100 days, we don’t need to. He has the ball.”

Like many others in his party, Mr. Alexander said he thinks Republicans have recently steadied themselves after a rough start in the Obama era.

“It has been better in the last 20 days than in the first 80,” said Representative Adam Putnam of Florida, a former Republican House leader. “We have struggled to find our footing in the new world order but have recovered.”

Republicans point proudly to their ability to close ranks, noting that only three Senate Republicans backed the $787 billion economic stimulus measure (though they provided the crucial margin of victory) while not a single Republican voted for budgets approved by the House and Senate. They rightfully note that they have so far held the line against a measure that would ease union organizing in the workplace.

They say they are reconnecting with their core voters by emphasizing what they see as profligate Democratic spending. And they say they are laying the groundwork for a comeback by putting themselves solidly on the right side of multiple issues in preparation for the public souring on the Democratic agenda on spending, health care, energy, etc.

“We are defining the debate and drawing contrasts and hopefully in most cases putting forward positive alternatives,” said Senator John Thune of South Dakota. “That’s what we are here to do.”

But it is tough, Mr. Thune acknowledged. “He is riding a wave of popularity and the Democrats in Congress have a lot of running room with the American public.”

It might even be tougher than tough. The fact is that the Republican Party, for the first time since 1995, has no power center in Washington. It controls not the White House, Senate or House. It is shut out.

That power vacuum has led to competition among Republicans to find a leading figure for the party, a fight that one Republican strategist compared to warlords battling for supremacy. The contest has diffused the party’s message, making it less coherent and left the public wondering who is speaking for Congressional Republicans — Newt Gingrich or Eric Cantor? Mitch McConnell or Michael Steele? Dick Cheney or John Boehner?

And while Republicans were effective in banding together against the stimulus and the budget, they have splintered elsewhere, most embarrassingly on a now-defunct Democratic House plan to levy a huge tax on executive bonuses.

After Mr. Boehner, the Ohio Republican and House leader, heaped scorn on the plan, Republicans still split down the middle as dozens backed it out of fear of the political consequences of opposing a tax on executives cashing in on an economic crisis that they caused.

Republicans have also sent mixed signals about how they intend to take on the president, initially blaming Congressional Democrats for leading him astray, then pouncing on Mr. Obama. Now, in the aftermath of strong new poll numbers for the president, Republicans have expressed a renewed willingness to work with Mr. Obama — while simultaneously assailing his policies and suggesting he is soft on terror.

The ultimate reality check for Congressional Republicans had to come Friday, when Scott Murphy, a Democrat, was declared the winner over his Republican opponent, James N. Tedisco, in a House race in upstate New York.

Although the seat was vacated by Kirsten Gillibrand, a Democrat, so she could replace Hillary Rodham Clinton in the Senate, Republicans had a 70,000-voter advantage in registration. More important, the party out of power often wins these contests in the aftermath of national elections as voters experience buyer’s remorse. Republicans had the more experienced candidate and went at the contest hard, only to come up short. It is likely to haunt the party and potentially depress candidate recruitment and fundraising.

But there are some glimmers of Republican relief on the horizon. Democrats are entering a difficult phase when they will have to produce support for the knotty details of health and energy legislation. Plans to protect health care legislation from Senate filibusters could cause all sorts of complications.

In addition, party divisions over whether to pursue Bush administration officials for the harsh treatment of terror detainees has yet to play out. And Democratic discomfort with the escalation in Afghanistan is becoming evident.

“They have their share of problems coming,” said Representative Tom Cole, Republican of Oklahoma, adding that “the mood of the Republican caucus is pretty good.”

Perhaps that is because Republicans figure the only direction is up.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/26/us...