Here's the look for McCain from Mason-Dixon's point of view:



McCain leads
OH +2
MO +1
NC +3

McCain is losing
FL -2
VA -3
PA -4
NV -4
CO -5

I know some of you might be saying, "I don't know Dave that looks a little like a big McCain loss to me"

But this is a positive move for these numbers in almost every state. Especially PA.

There are other polls in PA that don't show it this close but they've also moved in GOP direction over the past few days. Ras has it at -6, SUSA at -7, Morning Call at -7. A week ago MC was at -13, heck all the polls were in the double digits. This is excellent corroboration of Rick Davis' statement about them being close in PA.

So this still looks like a miss for McCain in PA, but what if these polls are just in the middle of capturing a shift in process, what if the numbers are still moving in PA as we speak? The big difference right now is that McCain for the first time has advertising parity in these states. He is not being outspent 4-1 anymore. Well maybe in IN, but I think he's counting on holding that.

McCain spent the day there today (in PA) and Sarah camped out there all week. McCain is heading back out there tomorrow, this is looking less now like a hail mary and more like a solid strategy.

To win McCain needs to keep the states he has a lead in (OH, MO, NC) get FL and VA and then capture either PA or NV and CO. The PA/VA strategy looks more doable at this point. Certainly more doable than it was looking just a few days ago.

And then there's Iowa, Sarah Palin is going to Dubuque tomorrow. Public polling has them down by double digits in IA. What's that about?