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Message: Worse Than '87 Crash: Current Crisis Hitting Main Street Hard

Worse Than '87 Crash: Current Crisis Hitting Main Street Hard

posted on Oct 07, 2008 01:35PM
Posted Oct 07, 2008 12:53pm EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Banking
Related: MO, UST, BAC, SAP, ^DJI, ^GSPC, ^IXIC

The current turmoil in the financial markets is "far worse" than the 1987 crash, the 1998 Long-Term Capital Management crisis, or the bursting of the tech bubble, says Jeff Matthews of Ram Partners.

Those past episodes, while painful, were mainly Wall Street events, says the veteran hedge fund manager, blogger, and author. But the current cycle is very much a Main Street phenomenon that is hitting "real economy" companies and employees alike, as Matthews recounts with a variety of anecdotes:

  • Altria having to delay its acquisition of UST because of a lack of funding.
  • SAP's warning of a "sudden drop" in orders.
  • Bank of America slashing its dividend and reporting a 68% year-over-year drop in earnings.
  • A car dealer whose sales fell 50% in September, even as gas prices declined.
  • A corporate CFO being unable to get a credit card.

While Matthews sees opportunities in selected stocks (he declined to name names), he fears third-quarter earning are going to be "awful." The resulting lowering of still-too-rosy profit forecasts for the fourth-quarter and 2009 is going to provide a ready excuse for another round of selling.

See the video comentary at: http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker...

John

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