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Message: RE: Gambling on Businesses:

RE: Gambling on Businesses:

posted on Dec 11, 2005 08:19AM
I strongly disagree with this fella in one respect. When he says ``The depression of the `30s is attributed to the fact that this technique, called ``selling short,`` was not done with care. The result: the big market crash of 1929.``,; my feeling/understanding is that, while short selling may have been a cause, it came as a result of the real source of the problem. In the early days (up till the early 1930s), an investor could buy on margin up to 10 times their cash position - 10 times! When the market was booming in the 1920s, this margin buying was out of control, feeding ever-increasing stock prices as demand increased due to availability of margin financing of the buys. And why wouldn`t you? Ten times your cash position to buy and watch as stock values grew. Meanwhile, the actual value of many companies grew due to people ``feeling`` that they held great wealth, and spent their phantom wealth on products otherwise outside their reach.

At some point, there may have been those who recognized what was going on and the root cause for the stock value increase and the socioeconomic phenonomon. Hence, the ``selling short`` being a result IMO, not a cause.

Subsequently, the SEC set more realistic limits on margins. They acted on the root cause.

All JMHO, and part of the 98% post contribution....

SGE

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