This headline is a cop-out of our first attempt at a working title for the Hot Topic in todays issue of IFExpress. We wanted to call this article: That Pesky, Bifurcated, Economically Driven, Population Dependant, Passenger Carry-on PED impacted, Connectivity Affected, and Retrofit Independent IFE Market. But, we realized that not only did we not have the space for the article, we didnt have the space for the title! So, we will do the next best thingconsider two of the biggest factors in new aircraft IFE: the single-aisle, connectivity-driven IFE issue and the wide-body hub bypass driven IFE.

Market growth for single-aisle aircraft continues to out pace wide-body planes in sheer numbers, but as you might have deduced, for obvious reasons the value of contracts is 2 to 3 times larger for the wide-body planes. The existing single-aisle-market is crowded with some 10,000 plus modern commercial jets, inventoried at the end of 2004. This excludes regional and smaller aircraft but we do not rule them out for IFE. Growth in the narrow-body sector will be driven by the fact that over 90% of the departures will be happening in single-aisles during the next 20 years. This market should hold interest for IFE vendors, but these aircraft are used on very short flight segments (mostly under 1 hour), and IFE is a hard sell based on in-seat time and the difficulty interacting with a laptop-based data or entertainment system. Interestingly, the longer route growth rate is increasing driven by newer technology jets, increasing flight time, sometimes up to as much as 5 hours! Consequently, there are really 2 market subsets which have evolved for the single-aisle one long range driven and one for shorter flights. In summary, IFE for the short-haul travelers is one category that remains mostly limited to overhead video (if any) while longer-haul travelers on flights over 3+ hours are frequently experiencing in-seat distributed video and broadcast television.

Most industry watchers conclude that the short-haul IFE market is tough because of the need based on limited flight time. Marketers state that because of the reduced passenger/airline interaction, IFE is not experiencing robust sales in this segment. While portable IFE has made some inroads in this area, fixed applications of portable devices may be the next thing.

However, we see another solution on the horizon. This new solution would defined by easy to use, ground-connected, Wi-Fi enabled devices that passengers bring aboard. The next generation of mobile phones (Smartphones) will provide this solution and deliver entertainment will on a properly equipped plane. Telephone brought to the airplane from either ground or by sitcom. Two developments must happen first: The rollout of Smartphones (done) and a solution to the connectivity problem must be solved (in-work) The folks who bring you Connexion will call it done, however. You will need easy access to a diminutive device to use on the smaller, space limited aircraft and the intelligent phone delivers that solution. Screens will have to get a bit bigger, and GSM/CDMA/Whatever high-speed service will have to be delivered to the plane, and finally, the ground infrastructure must be in place. Wi-Fi will no doubt, be the protocol of choice if wireless telephony via picocell. We expect the Verizons, AirCells, and Boeings of the world to jump on the upcoming FCC frequency auction because they see this market coming.

The growing longer-range, single-aisle market is presently being served well by the Thales, Rockwells and MASs of the world. They have been developing lighter weight, lower power, smaller, installed IFE systems that use, high-speed, networked, digital, entertainment. Both companies seem to have wireless applications in development which may give the installed portable products a real challenge. In both cases, ease of installation and minimum impact on the plane and its performance is a necessity and single-box solutions have an upper hand. In conclusion, unless a new paradigm is found, the longer range single-aisle market will continue to belong to the major vendors.

Because the single-aisle fleet occupies the largest part of the current jet plane inventory, the subject of retrofit is very important and the ease of installation and cost will determine if airlines get interested. JetBlue proved TV is a passenger driver and is now offered by the major vendors but at a challenging price. Southwest is example of a US airline waiting for the right technology to come along and at the same time be compatible with their business model. It will be interesting to see if they look toward connectivity for a solution. No doubt airlines like Ryanair in the UK and others who fly over land routes will be candidates for some new infrastructure, however, TFTS suffered a fate that may prevent interest by other international applications and possibly leave their connectivity to satcoms or onboard server approaches Many airlines will be watching the US but unless the US airlines become more profitable, nothing will happen here. It looks like US connectivity will be one of the most important drivers for IFE in the foreseeable future based on aircraft, technology, and demand.

Next time, we will examine the twin-aisle products and the market drivers there.