Mobile phone makers, analysts, video companies, and consumers are ``watching.``

Michael Stroud [iHollywood Forum] | POSTED: 10.20.05 @07:00

Whenever the subject of video on mobile phones comes up at my conferences, I always hear some variant of the following statement: ``Two-minute video on mobile phones, great. TV shows and movies, bad. No one wants to watch long-form content on tiny screens.``

That`s why Apple`s release of its Video iPod is so intriguing. Apple is betting that people do want to watch long-form video on tiny screens. Apple`s deal with ABC to download TV programs like Desperate Housewives on iPods is groundbreaking. Once again, Steve Jobs is happily going against conventional wisdom.

I`d love to say I have an opinion on whether Jobs`s bet is correct. But I don`t. It`s fair to say Jobs doesn`t know either. Apple is opportunistic about its product releases. It throws a product into the marketing wind—say, the iPod Shuffle or the iMac Mini—and sees if it takes in the market. If it does, it ramps up production.

Last year, a senior Apple executive speaking at Music 2.0 remarked that the iPod was initially test marketed. When asked how Apple knew it was time to ramp up, he replied: ``It worked.``

So it will be with the Video iPod. If people decide they love watching video on tiny screens, we can expect to see millions of Video iPods over the next few years. If people don`t like watching video on tiny screens, it will fade away like the Lisa. No harm done.

The Video iPod`s success or failure has huge implications for consumer electronics and for the film and television businesses.

The first consumer products to download video—Sony`s Playstation Portable and video products from smaller players like Archos and iRiver—have sparked nearly zero interest in portable video.

But then, MP3 players weren`t a blip on the music industry`s screen until Steve Jobs signed deals with the major labels and launched the iPod. He`s hoping the Video iPod can create the same groundswell as digital music for mobile TV and film.

Companies that stream video remotely such as Sling Media must also be watching the Video iPod`s launch closely. These concerns also are trying to persuade consumers to watch TV shows and other video on tiny screens—albeit video stored remotely on home computers.

And mobile phone makers are also watching. A successful Video iPod launch would validate their efforts to launch mobile video services and possibly—against all conventional wisdom—clear the way for movies on mobile phones.

Or not. We`ll have to wait and see.

One final note: Before we completely discount the idea of long-form video on tiny devices, consider that Eyetop glasses hook to portable DVD players, projecting the equivalent of a 14-inch screen in front of your retinas. If your eyes can be tricked into believing they`re watching a big screen, you`ll watch. If so, consumers would end up judging the Video iPod by the resolution of the video, not the size of the screen.

Or not. We`ll have to wait and see.