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Message: RE: knock, knock - emit

RE: knock, knock - emit

posted on Sep 16, 2005 12:09PM
Though I totally agree with you with this generally applicable theory, recalling the history (post Jan `00) of EDIG, this theory rarely applied. How many times have we been blind-sided either on positive or negative news? And this time, we (THE AWARE) have already gotten a glimpse, and, being the AWARE, can tie comments by Brent Wood to EDIG and have found (and more-or-less confirmed) something coming from AMTRAK.

I keep working the numbers in my head - 8 re-orders, several more airlines to be announced, AMTRAK - and even with a pessimistic view, the resultant numbers, in light of our recent past, would be considered ``significant``. Heck, that one order for 900 units (MartinAir) equates to over half a $M. That`s just one. The two others that we know of are very small, but gotta come to some 200-300 units minimum.

And those, IMO, are probably the small spuds (already announced because they are so small that announcing in the WAEA, crowded with Big Boys, will get little or no notice). Just my ``marketing`` brain at work....but I think that the recognizable airlines of significant size, and which will garner significant attention at an event like WAEA, are holding news of their engagement for when the WAEA/IFE party actually starts.

We`ll KNOW, probably within a week, which airlines have signed up. Shortly after that (after 9/30/05), I would think we`ll get a biz update from EDIG which should reveal the cum magnitude of orders.

BTW, after reading earlier about AMTRAK and their pending Gov`t funding infusion, I also noted that their FY begins 1 Oct. (no big surprise - they`re dependent on Gov`t funding, and that`s the start of the new Gov`t FY and availability of new funding). So I surmise that their order will follow shortly after 1 Oct. if one is still in the offing. My background in Gov`t funded enterprises suggests that all the paper may already be in place, fully executed, with a contract commencement date of 1 Oct (with caveats in case Gov`t budget isn`t timely approved, in which case there may still be work-arounds).

FWIW from Mr. KNOW-nuttin`!

SGE

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