Moving right along, I don`t doubt that the pending AMTRAK order is one of these ``several`` to be announced. Some suggest that the AMTRAK may not be that significant. My opinion differs based on working the numbers. Yeah, there are a lot of short distance commuter routes, fouling the basis of calculation based on the numbers we KNOW. But, per B-Lunist`s diggings, we KNOW that there are on average 70,000 passengers a day. Is it reasonable to assume that half of these passengers are mere commuters, the other half travel across the rest of the entire country? Going with that assumption, there are 35,000 potential customers for digEs, on average, daily. What would be the take-up rate on a train? More or less than on an airplane? I suspect at least equal. While, on a train, there are things to actually see as you pass, that only applies during daylight hours. Then look at the demographic. I suspect that, by and large, train travelers are lower on the scale economically, thereby suggesting that they don`t have a laptop or some other means of entertainment, but probably could muster $10 to rent a digE for the trip. But I`ll ``go low`` and suggest that the planned/expected take-up is only 10%. That`s 3,500 digEs per day. Now add the 50% more digEs in rotation, and you`re over 5,000 (and keep in mind that, in this venue where travel takes a lot longer time-wise, the number in rotation may have to be much larger). So I again come to that 5,000 plus number.
Ahh, but you (no-one specifically) say ``but your numbers suck!`` based on my error in determining the MartinAir number. There, based on my calculations, I hoped to see an order for 2-3,000. A tad off the actual 900! They actually ordered only about a third of my optimal number. So take that as a precedent, and hit my low-ball AMTRAK number similarly. We`re still looking at an order for some 1,700 units. Significant? 1,700 X $635 = $1M+. Another big drop in the bucket.
All and all, things are lining up very nicely for WAEA and the near term. The Asian expo next week could yield something(s), and WAEA most certainly will. And if just one is a big boy (along the lines of the perported 40,000 unit order), things could get very exciting.
And all these new sales and re-orders - how will they affect the market near term? Success breeds success, busines begets more business. That answers the question IMO.
More in next message.....
SGE