Not OT IMO b/c thought process of this repost (stock was $2.00 and now $23.00)
posted on
Apr 04, 2011 04:44PM
I don't think this is off topic because of the thought process of the poster and how that same thought process applies to our EDIG. T and O. Loved the last paragraph from someone in the know!
Here is the link with more comments. http://caps.fool.com/Pitch/VHC/4677171/good-grief-near-its-52-week-hi.aspx
The better questions for you to ask are:
How much are they suing for? You don't sue for a fixed dollar amount in infringement cases. If successful on all counts, MSFT will have about 300 billion dollars in sales of infringing products to date. Cases like this generally yield 0.5 to 2% royalty rates, with 1-1.5% being most common. So they're suing for about 3 billion dollars, plus an injunction or royalties going forward.
More importantly though, IF totally successful, it's only the first stop on the way to suing 1000 other companies.
And even if they win their litigation, how long do you think it will take to exhaust the appeals process and reach settlement before they get paid? First, recognize that the jury verdict will cause a large move up or down, regardless of this answer. So to the short term speculator, it may not matter. However, the answer is less than a year to the Federal Circuit opinion, and judgments are not stayed during an application for a hearing in the Supreme Court. So, less than a year is the answer.
Do you think the firm they are suing has the resources to string this out for a long, long time?
MSFT has zero interest in stringing this out for one minute more than they have to and won't. It is, in fact, the primary tactic of the patent troll (patent holding company) to string things out, and thus settle to avoid costs. The large company is always in a worse position in a string out situation, because of contingency legal arrangements (i.e. zero legal costs to the plaintiff regardless of time).
There will be a verdict in a couple weeks and it will be the only thing that really matters. An unfavorable verdict will bring the stock down to next to nothing, while a favorable jury verdict will ensure they can easily get favorable financing for as long as they need, pending appeal.
As for your questions about me -- I have two MF profiles. One I've never commented on a stock with, and this one, for which VCH is the only stock I commented on. I'm afraid if there is a promoter out there, he/she has some number of those other 2-3 accounts.
I am a patent attorney at one of the best patent firms in the country (or so the rankers say) who works in the computer subject matter area. My best friend is a patent agent at one of the best patent firms in the country (different firm, also ranked very high). Additionally, said friend was a patent examiner for 3 years, in the art unit these patents came from. He has no insider information, but is highly experienced in the very unique practice of evaluating the patentability of technology, specifically this technology. I have no interest in ******* other than guessing which way the verdict will go next week (or the following week) and making money off of it. To that end, my friend and I have read the briefs, the patents, the motions, the jury instructions, the file wrappers, and several other relevant documents, in an effort to guess correctly. Please notice that I did not express an opinion either way regarding the verdict, only that your post *showed* a complete lack of understanding of what should be evaluated when deciding to gamble on this company...............