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Message: TIVO, MSFT, INTEL.......and portable devices...

TIVO, MSFT, INTEL.......and portable devices...

posted on Jun 21, 2005 07:34AM
TiVo shares on the go

By Bambi Francisco, MarketWatch

Last Update: 4:53 PM ET June 8, 2005

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- What`s in an announcement?

If it`s the TiVo-Microsoft- Intel press release inviting the public to ``Enjoy the Ride with TiVoToGo,`` then it`s a lot brand promotion, with potentially little revenue to show for it.

TiVo (TIVO: news, chart, profile) -- the pioneer of digital video recorders -- said Wednesday that it`s working with Microsoft and Intel to allow consumers to transfer TiVo-recorded movies and video programs onto portable devices. As part of the three-way deal, American Airlines will test out the service with free Microsoft (MSFT: news, chart, profile) portable ``media centers,`` powered by Intel (INTC: news, chart, profile) . The media centers will have TiVo content stored inside.

On the news, TiVo`s stock initially rose more than 7%. But by the close, it gained 3% to $7.22 in active trading.

It`s worth noting that part of the run-up may have to do with the short interest covering their positions. As of mid-May, about 14 million shares were held in short position, or roughly 25% of the company`s float.

But some analysts scratched their heads at the stock`s rise.

``This definitely promotes the [TiVo`s] brand. But there`s too much read into the strategic importance of the deal,`` said Rob Sanderson, an analyst at American Technology Research. ``I hardly doubt this leads to big things among TiVo, Microsoft and Intel.``

Indeed, Tivo isn`t charging consumers an incremental cost for this convenience.

But it will incur costs to give away TiVo boxes. As part of the promotion, TiVo and Microsoft are giving away one free TiVo and media center each day, beginning June 8. The hardware cost to TiVo is about $150 per box, based on last quarter.

To be sure, there are TiVo bulls that believe the announcement is a validation of Tivo`s leadership and brand.

``Most of the Street has not given TiVo any credit for its deal with Comcast (CMCSK: news, chart, profile) ,`` said Daniel Ernst, an analyst at Soleil Securities. In mid-March, Tivo and Comcast said they would make Tivo`s technology available to Comcast cable customers. In addition, the pair plan to co-develop a version of the Tivo services for Comcast`s current primary video-recording system.

Some investors believe that even though Comcast said it would make Tivo`s services available, it wouldn`t necessarily be promoting it heavily, said Ernst.

But Ernst also believes that neither Intel nor Microsoft would have endorsed TiVo unless they believed there would be big volume forthcoming. To this end, he thinks that Comcast has a commitment to drive up TiVo devices.

So, what does it take for TiVo to make money off this TiVoToGo service?

``They need to charge for it,`` said Sanderson. ``Or they need to generate a lot of paid subscribers with low incremental marketing expense.``

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