What IFEer’s Are Predicting for 2010!

Fresh back from their holiday vacations, we asked the IFE experts what they see ahead for 2010. Last week we sent out over 100 requests for predictions affecting inflight entertainment and connectivity. Many asked for anonymity and we gladly complied. So, here they are, warts and all:

1. All US major airlines will be installing or trialing international long-haul passenger e-mail and SMS by the end of 2010 – Dick Smith, Inmarsat.

2. Ford will license it’s new interface to an airline IFE company and Mulally will return to Aerospace in the next 3 years – ANONYMOUS.

3. We feel that with the current economics of the Global Airlines there will continue to be pressure to reduce costs. Yet as a counter balance there will be a necessity for connectivity and of equal importance differentiation of service to improve the overall quality for the flying customer of the “flight experience”. Having said that one area that will finally be realized is the full integration of fiber directly to the screen on a significant quantity of planes. The increased bandwidth capacity and reduction of IFE system weight with FO will be a significant leap forward in 2010 – Earle Olsen, Tyco.

4. Additional terrorists attacks will cripple the business plans of in-air connectivity companies and those IFE companies that base a large part of their revenue steam on connectivity services when in a “knee-jerk” by the FAA orders the disconnection of all [non-flight deck related] on-/off-board links to/from the aircraft. Particularly affected will be moving map display companies and services; automated location announcements; and connecting gate information services. Also impacted will be those entertainment and news services that get real time updates from the ground and/or satellites to the aircraft. [i.e. major news services; CNN; etc.] – ANONYMOUS.

5. 2010 will be the year that connectivity (voice & data) will become a normal part of the in-flight experience and passenger view of the less is better pricing plans will take hold at least in the domestic US market. It will also see some interesting partnerships emerge in this industry to offer some new and yet unexplored options in closing the business case for the various suppliers – Michael Kuhen, President Telefonix.

6. A new emerging IFE vendor will be established in China and make major in-roads on the business of existing IFE companies. Cheap labor; excellent engineering; and piracy of intellectual property will allow the upstart to garner some major contracts with established world airlines – ANONYMOUS.

7. Customer expectations of IFE will continue to evolve and increase. They’ll expect an inflight communications and entertainment experience that mirrors what¹s available to them at home and at the office. Some airlines will get it and continue to introduce or evolve products inspired by the likes of TiVO, the web and social media – aided and abetted by increasingly savvy hardware manufacturers and IFE service companies that act more and more like marketing agencies. Other airlines will continue to ‘study’ enhancements, and sadly, lose relevance with their increasingly connected customers – Raymond Girard, President Spafax.

8. A major IFE company that is spun off by its current owner will be bought by a Chinese (or Hong Kong) Consortium in order to get a jump-start into what is perceived to be a lucrative industry. The Chinese company will start with hardware and systems, but attempt to follow the strategy of SONY and try to supply it’s systems by buying some Hollywood “content” providers (e.g. studios? distributors? record companies?) – ANONYMOUS.

9. 2010 will be a flat year for major new campaigns, (but with lots of planning which spurs creativity and better designs), and the first quarter of 2011 will be the indicator of when the high flying days of major mods onto complete fleets will, once again and inevitably, fuel even more ideas and designs- George Smallhorn, CEO Inflight Canada.

10. Wireless devices used primarily to send and receive emails and surf the Net will become ‘essential’ for many passengers, and airlines will find ways to offer the most powerful devices while also making modest profits from these services – Elizabeth Young, Consultant.

11. “In 2010, look for airlines to increase the use of social media in communicating with their passengers, and for some of that to take place onboard connected aircraft by way of pax own portable devices.” – Michael Childers.

12. Of course, given the current tension around the aircrafts and airports, it is also possible that all the money will go into body scanners, which will be easy to predict. In that case we may offer the passengers to have a free view of the body scans of those on your flight, it may be better than the regularly offered IFE programs, and they are free – ANONYMOUS.

13. Cabin connectivity will quickly become free of charge, challenging original business models and hindering ROI (for the airline or the supplier, depending on if the system was given away or purchased) , and in parallel technology advancements have greatly reduced the barrier of entry to play in the embedded IFE market, which will ultimately result in a paradigm shift for the space as a result of innovation, architectural advancements, reliability improvements and significant life cycle cost reductions – Joseph Renton, CEO IMS.

14. On the hardware side the trend will be the shift from aircraft equipped to passenger carried on smartphones and tablets, while on the service side there will be strong demand for connectivity and customized passenger’s requests for IFE movies/programs/languages which they can preorder before the flight – Massimo Di Sanctis, CEO PlaneBill.

15. High Definition video for IFE will be specified by the WAEA Tech Committee, and an IFE supplier will introduce HD 3-D video displays – ANONYMOUS.

16. I believe that the dream of IFEC being an extension of the home/office is finally upon us from a technical perspective. Mobile phone use is on the increase, and Internet bandwidth will soon grow to usable levels. However, we have recently been reminded that airborne security remains a huge challenge and this may well prove to be the greatest hurdle against progress. Our industry needs to focus on making sure our systems are inherently safe, and then convincing the authorities that they are – otherwise we will be facing even greater pressures to dumb-down or “switch off” systems – Geoff Underwood, CEO Inflight Perhiperals.

17. The fee that passengers are willing to pay for inflight connectivity is a much over-touted topic – connectivity will become an expected free service in the air shortly after it is on the ground – and airlines will find much more lucrative uses for connectivity to justify it – like operational data transmission and sponsored content – Rich Salter, VP Lumexis.

18. 2010 will show rapid growth in connectivity solutions (Row 44, ExConnect, Aircell) and this will spur more growth in content and productivity apps for pax and crew alike – John Courtright, SIE Inc.

19. 2010 will see the realisation of the integrated aircraft connectivity solution: safety, operational, administration and passenger communications all managed seamlessly by one system – David Coiley, ARINC.

20. 2010 will see the realisation of the integrated aircraft connectivity solution: safety, operational, administration and passenger communications all managed seamlessly by one system – David Coiley, ARINC.

RUMOR CENTRAL – We just could not leave this one alone. This insolvency report appeared in the London Gazette, Dec. 29 2009 and it appears that AeroMobile is under “administration”. We checked the company number against the AeroMobile website and it tracks – if a reader has more data, please let us know what is going on. Both off record comments from AeroMobile and competitors responded, “Duh”?