RE: Tormenting Thoughts....DB/LL
posted on
May 01, 2005 12:22PM
I kinda have to agree with LL re: the Wencor IPO thing. If Wencor were to, say, spin off APS (as the IFE biz; which would be the easiest route since it already is a corporate entity and has desireable name recognition), they`d be ``burdened`` with the pressures of a publically held company. If this avenue held any real appeal, it seems to me the wiser move would be to just take the whole of Wencor public; thereby simplifying everything and acquiring a great deal more ``leverage`` (assuming that is/would be the objective). BTW, this discussion was broached recently, but it I believe was passed over for the other (much less pertinent IMO) discussions on this board the last couple of months.
This brings up another scenario based on the ``leverage to do what?`` question; leverage to buy out EDIG? (which was the theme of prior brief discussion along these lines). This scenario could play out in lots of ways, but frankly scares the heck out of me. Realistically, what would it take to buy out EDIG? With no premium attached, not much in the scheme of things (166M shares at $.165 = $27,390,000). So what premium would be attached? 25% ($.20+/share)? 100% ($.33/share)? 400% (~$.85/share)? 1,000% (~$1.82/share)? I don`t like any of those numbers!*** In the DOW world, a 25% premium would be generous. In the NAZ world, 400% would be extremely generous (and I used that percentage intentionally, as I once experienced having Nichols Labs bought out by Corning with a premium in that neighborhood - and no, I didn`t ``own enough``!).
*** These numbers don`t do credit when compared to the 40,000 unit example I gave, with my opinion of impact, short and long, on PPS.
So I don`t think the (APS) spin-off scenario works too well, but the Wencor IPO scenario maybe (but unlikely IMO, unless their intent was to buy EDIG with a fat premium - no premium/25% premium wouldn`t warrant an IPO; it ain`t THAT much money).
However, a news black out could indicate that some sort of major DD is being done on EDIG, I suppose (witnessed that sort of thing a couple of times - once having to do with a buyout, and once having to do with the company seeking sale of a major equity stake).
I simply don`t like the thought of a buyout of EDIG, as I doubt the premium would satisfy my palate (i.e., greed! LOL).
But let the discussion continue!
Cuz I KNOW nuttin`!
SGE