Tormenting Thoughts....
posted on
May 01, 2005 10:58AM
Some keep saying that TOTAL silence (re: on IFE progress, and perhaps other endeavors) is being dictated by Wencor/Wencor`s customers. I just don`t buy it - the idea of TOTAL silence. I can understand why Wencor`s airline/other customers wouldn`t want Wencor or Wencor`s suppliers (i.e., EDIG and our device manufacturer) to announce that they are indeed customers or to what degree (quantities of units). I can almost understand Wencor not announcing simply because they don`t have to (being a private company not beholden to shareholders), though from a business standpoint it seems to me that announcing sales, even with no names attached, would be in their best interest (Since sales/adoption is the truest form of promotion).
And then there`s EDIG. Publicly held and beholden to its shareholders (with I think a fiduciary responsibility to timely advise shareholders of significant events affecting share value, good or bad***). They set a precedent in the last six months, and under Atul`s watch, of announcing (not necessarily timely) some airlines (all of which I don`t believe Wencor had announced independently, but had been announced by the airlines or via the media with presumeable airline permission). EDIG also, as recently as early this year I believe, announced exact figures with regard to advance, 50% up front monies received on orders for devices. They`ve done it before! Recently!
So what to make of the lack of news/updates? Worst case scenario IMO is that there have been no further orders from Wencor (or anyone else, for anything). Not a happy scenario, but very possible. This thought, IMO, is much of the cause of shareholders doing the Snagglepuss thing (exit, stage right). Not a good basis for exit though, as all indications from the media and most known customers is that the digE is a winner, so its future is reasonably bright.
We may be able to ``reason`` this scenario in or out by trying to figure the probable quantities Wencor had ordered that were announced (via dollar amounts) from EDIG and whether such quantities would satisfy the probable/actual order quantities received by Wencor from recent adopters (though that supposed re-order of 3,600 units from AA fouls calculations/scenario building).
Another possibility is that EDIG, based on input from Wencor, believes that a major carrier may sign on the dotted line at any moment, and that THAT news is worth holding out for. This of course is my preferred scenario.
And, BTW, IMO, this kind of news (e.g., 40,000 units, no names and not even a specific delivery timeframe) would be worth added dollars to our PPS immediately (40K X .5K = $20M revs; 25% margin = $5M profit/earnings pre OH expenses; $4M profit post OH expenses = $.025/share; apply P/E of 40 and you get $1/share on fundamentals; throw in emotional factor and traders stepping in, and IMO we`re looking at a pop to $2-3 before pull back to a buck).
Other scenarios ``in between``?
Well, just throwing it out there - without expressing the frustration this holds for me. Ignorance of what`s happenning makes me have to say....
I KNOW nuttin`!
SGE
*** Little help from the knowledgeable PLEASE (former/current broker or whatever). What are a public company`s legal (SEC) obligations regarding informing shareholders of significant events? (positive or negative info).