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Message: Business Update

Business Update

posted on Apr 14, 2005 10:40AM
Does anyone ever recall management taking this long for a guidance communication?

Well, I think that last year around this time, they issued a business update on April 20th. So yes I do and since we haven`t broken any records yet, continued patience is still the prescribed medicine around here (as bad as that tastes).

I would further offer the following with respect to expected (= hoped for) guidance:

1. Any guidance or business update without a significant announcement (including numbers) is practically valueless to us. I`d much rather there was no president`s letter, webcast, or interim update and instead got an honest-to-goodness PR/announcement which made if obvious/clear that they are making progress and getting orders that amount to something. Such an announcement could literally come at any time and there`s simply no predicting it - nor is it dependent upon the day of the week or where we are in the quarter.

2. It is possible that they prefer to wait on such an announcement before issuing any update - if they believe the announcement is imminent. That could easily push the update to later in the month and even well into May.

3. It is also possible they will choose not to issue any update at all - and let actual announcements (or lack of announcements) speak for themselves. After all, there is nothing compelling them to say anything outside of the 10K which isn`t due until June 30th. That wouldn`t be my choice, but if they really have nothing much to say, then so be it.

I happen to think we`re close to a significant announcement. I don`t look at their silence as a good thing, but at this particular point in time (given what we think we know), I wouldn`t assume it as necessarily bad either.

- Sinkman

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