RE: I would bet many of you thought I was crazy last week when I said this
posted on
Aug 31, 2006 11:59AM
These party/ies have maybe picked up 2-300K shares today, intermingled with many others jumping on board, or seller into it. In dollars, that`s only $30-45K. Significant? To an individual with respectable financial status, yes. In the grand scheme of things? No. In one day? I have bought this many shares over time, but at multiples of today`s PPS. And have bought or sold 100K shares in one day (see ``wild hair`` comment below). And, yep, the price moved just like today, up or down depending on what I was doing, in spite of my attempts to disguise my intent (i.e., ten 10K blocks as opposed to 100K all at once - which I KNOW would prompt immediate MM action/manipulation).
I guess what I`m saying is:
- It ain`t that much money flowing.
- At this volume, it isn`t truly indicative of anything (could be one person that got a wild hair tickling his ``buy button``).
- Based on what we KNOW, even this meager action isn`t justified.
When we KNOW more, when ever that happens, this may all appear fully justified, and the buyer will appear brilliant. But, gosh, I sure thought I was brilliant more than once.
Bottom line is please don`t get too carried away with this. Exaggerated expectations because of some action like this have been upsetting and extremely frustrating to me. Recently I ask myself (paraphrased Presidential candidate line of the past): From all appearances, is the company better off today than it was before? (like even just a year ago?). A year ago, the patent thing was in the wings (as always) and we had a customer (as he was) and revenues. Today, we have the patent thing in the wings (with possible action - maybe - someday), no customer (Mezzo - maybe - if they can hold off their activities till we can sell `em an eVU), and mired in legal crap (including the Maycom debackle - will they deliver?, and ``much ado about nothing`` - we believe). Just a reality check....
Add this: the current accumulation is likely based on an assumption of an iminent positive announcement, i.e., something out of the company other than more dilution. Today is Thursday. Tomorrow is a Friday before a 3-day weekend. Next week is a holiday week, and last shot at summer. Positive announcement iminent? It just seems unlikely.
Hopefully for all longs, there is something to this action this time. Just don`t get carried away as I have so many times.
Forever optimistic, but with a lot more caution these days.
And I KNOW nuttin`!
SGE