The long-range Rolls-Royce forecast, covering this year through 2023, shows a need for 23,000 aircraft with a delivered value of $284 billion. These numbers include bizliners through very light jets, which Rolls-Royce dubbed “microjets” and included in its forecast for the first time. For the powerplant manufacturers, this means 47,000 engines (including spares) worth some $60 billion. The 5,000-pound-thrust and above categories will represent the majority of the engines delivered by value.

When the VLJs are left out of the Rolls-Royce crystal ball, the company predicts 15,000 business jet deliveries through 2023, up slightly from last year’s forecast.

The forecast indicates a rising proportion of new aircraft deliveries for fractional use relative to the total market. Today, fractional operators take delivery of between 10 and 15 percent of annual deliveries. The forecast shows this proportion increasing to as much as 22 percent.

Most of this growth will come from North America, which will account for 73 percent of the purchases. The European market will acquire 11 percent of the new aircraft, Latin America 6 percent and the rest of the world 10 percent.

IMDC Perspective

IMDC’s forecast predicts that continued recovery in the business jet market will drive demand for 6,300 new business jets over the next 10 years. “Confidence has returned to the business jet market and we are seeing a resurgence of interest in equipping new and existing airplanes with advanced in-flight entertainment and in-flight connectivity,” noted IMDC CEO Walé Adepoju. “We anticipate the market continuing to recover into 2005 and 2006, and to expand through to 2009.”

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