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Message: Hanging on....

Hanging on....

posted on Jan 24, 2005 08:22AM
With the thought, primarily, of one thing: that there is pent up demand for the installed IFE. Assuming this is true (and there are indications is it so), great things COULD happen with its approval by the FAA.

Indications:

Absense of any news/orders via Wencor since 11/12/04. Wencor didn`t get into this to capture an order from SilkAir; there must be more.

RyanAir follow-on in abeyance, with knowledge that O`Leary`s one big concern with the portables is theft.

Nothing from Delta; no Delta announcements of upgrades to IFE (i.e., no adoption of a competing product).

What COULD happen (and not too much of a stretch, though a stretch just the same):

RyanAir follow-on for installed, and not just 5,000 units, but 25,000 (with the existing 1,000 portables retained to use as back-ups or for use in smaller cabins).

Delta goes installed and, per my previous calculations, that could be an order for 100,000 units.

What this would mean: 125,000 units at ~$600 = $75M in revenues to EDIG; 125k X $150 = 18,750,000 in profit/earnings to EDIG; Over 10 cents per share; at a P/E rate of 50 (not unreasonable for a tech stock), $5 PPS; throw in emotional factor (short-lived) = $10 PPS.

Not so long shot IMO, assuming there is that pent up demand I suspect exists. And I`m only speculating re: two airlines that I think are primed. SouthWest and others could also come into play.

On the other side of the coin (or, arguing from a different perspective); if there is no pent up demand, why pursue FAA approval of an installed system? Why no new or follow-on orders for portables? Why did Wencor buy in to this business and hire dedicated staff?

So my new ``threshold for tolerance`` (changed for the umteenth time! And as or volume goes up and PPS goes down today.) isn`t the upcoming 10Q, but notice of FAA approval of the installed system and what announcements immediately follow.

Wild cards are:

Fusion pPVR if it EVER comes - though it seems it`s been ``alive`` for months, with no takers. Seems weird that they now talk of roll out in late Feb when we KNOW the thing has been around (i.e., ``available`` as a platform) for many months, along with their associated STB. Hence ``Wild Card``. Corrections welcome....

F-10 arbitration, though a one-time event it will help the bottom line assuming we`re successful and can actually collect. Hence ``Wild Card``.

Other? What new things can they be developing? I`m sure EL has a long list....

DAPs? Market saturated. Handheld video? Market saturated (though Fusion remains ``viable`` based on model of subscriber-based release).

So all I KNOW is that I`ve again changed my ``tolerance threshold`` (and it is a shame that I refer to it as ``tolerance``). Other than that, I KNOW nuttin`!

SGE

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