Hanging on....
posted on
Jan 24, 2005 08:22AM
Indications:
Absense of any news/orders via Wencor since 11/12/04. Wencor didn`t get into this to capture an order from SilkAir; there must be more.
RyanAir follow-on in abeyance, with knowledge that O`Leary`s one big concern with the portables is theft.
Nothing from Delta; no Delta announcements of upgrades to IFE (i.e., no adoption of a competing product).
What COULD happen (and not too much of a stretch, though a stretch just the same):
RyanAir follow-on for installed, and not just 5,000 units, but 25,000 (with the existing 1,000 portables retained to use as back-ups or for use in smaller cabins).
Delta goes installed and, per my previous calculations, that could be an order for 100,000 units.
What this would mean: 125,000 units at ~$600 = $75M in revenues to EDIG; 125k X $150 = 18,750,000 in profit/earnings to EDIG; Over 10 cents per share; at a P/E rate of 50 (not unreasonable for a tech stock), $5 PPS; throw in emotional factor (short-lived) = $10 PPS.
Not so long shot IMO, assuming there is that pent up demand I suspect exists. And I`m only speculating re: two airlines that I think are primed. SouthWest and others could also come into play.
On the other side of the coin (or, arguing from a different perspective); if there is no pent up demand, why pursue FAA approval of an installed system? Why no new or follow-on orders for portables? Why did Wencor buy in to this business and hire dedicated staff?
So my new ``threshold for tolerance`` (changed for the umteenth time! And as or volume goes up and PPS goes down today.) isn`t the upcoming 10Q, but notice of FAA approval of the installed system and what announcements immediately follow.
Wild cards are:
Fusion pPVR if it EVER comes - though it seems it`s been ``alive`` for months, with no takers. Seems weird that they now talk of roll out in late Feb when we KNOW the thing has been around (i.e., ``available`` as a platform) for many months, along with their associated STB. Hence ``Wild Card``. Corrections welcome....
F-10 arbitration, though a one-time event it will help the bottom line assuming we`re successful and can actually collect. Hence ``Wild Card``.
Other? What new things can they be developing? I`m sure EL has a long list....
DAPs? Market saturated. Handheld video? Market saturated (though Fusion remains ``viable`` based on model of subscriber-based release).
So all I KNOW is that I`ve again changed my ``tolerance threshold`` (and it is a shame that I refer to it as ``tolerance``). Other than that, I KNOW nuttin`!
SGE