The Latest from George Doumet at Scotia Capital Markets
posted on
Aug 02, 2013 12:42PM
George still likes it and still has an outperform rating as well as a $10 price target. Here is his July 31 summary.
Rico
Company Profile Crius Energy Trust, the result of the merger of Regional Energy Holdings Inc. and Public Power LLC, is among the largest independent energy retailers in the United States. The combined entity engages in the sale of energy in 10 U.S. states and the District of Columbia and natural gas in four states. The resulting combination of the sales platforms have created an extensive multi-channel platform, with channels targeting exclusive marketing partnerships, network marketing, and telemarketing. As at June 30, 2012, Crius Energy had 495,600 customers. Business Mix (Based on revenues unless otherwise noted) 95% Electricity; 5% Natural Gas Comparable Companies (TSX unless otherwise noted) JE-T
.Recent Update Text as of 31JUL13 . Crius Energy Trust is expected to report Q2/13 results on August 7. We are looking for sales of $109.7M and EBITDA of $12.8M, below consensus of
. $125M and $13.6M, respectively. We are looking for a normalized operating environment starting in Q2/13: gross
margins to revert to 25.2% (in line with the midpoint of company's guidance) from 17.6% last quarter. We believe this is supported by the lack of power price volatility and unlikelihood of volumetric risk in the company's operating
markets. Based on 23.5% gross margin assumption, KWH's 2013E payout ratio is 89% . We expect KWH to add 35k RCEs this quarter, below last quarter's +48.5k RCEs
(due mainly to the seasonally weaker Viridian network in Q2). We expect an acceleration in customer additions starting in 2H/13 as FTR (Exclusive Marketing
channel) fully ramps up. . Direct Energy's Q2/13 results point to robust organic growth and improved
retention rates in Crius' key Northeastern U.S. market, but at the cost of
. margin compression (increased competition). We expect Q2 and 2H/13 to be more indicative of the company's earnings power
(irregular weather patterns and an under-hedged energy position in Q4/12 and Q1/13). Moving forward, we are confident in the trust's ability to: (1) gradually pass through recent spikes in prices, (2) add RCEs organically, and (3) execute accretive and strategic acquisitions.