Just out from George @ Scotia Capital
posted on
May 15, 2013 09:56AM
Looks good!
Rico
Company Profile Crius Energy Trust, the result of the merger of Regional Energy Holdings Inc. and Public Power LLC, is among the largest independent energy retailers in the United States. The combined entity engages in the sale of energy in 10 U.S. states and the District of Columbia and natural gas in four states. The resulting combination of the sales platforms have created an extensive multi-channel platform, with channels targeting exclusive marketing partnerships, network marketing, and telemarketing. As at June 30, 2012, Crius Energy had 495,600 customers. Business Mix (Based on revenues unless otherwise noted) 95% Electricity; 5% Natural Gas Comparable Companies (TSX unless otherwise noted) JE-T .Recent Update Text as of 14MAY13 Crius Energy Trust reported EBITDA of $5.5M vs. our estimate of $5.6M and . consensus of $9.5M (which excludes our estimate). Gross margins for the quarter came in at 17.5% (16.7% in January, 7.3% in February, and 28.1% in March). We are looking for a more normalized operating environment starting in Q2/13: we expect April and half of May to remain in the vicinity of exit rates experienced in March. Based on 23.5% gross margin assumption, KWH's 2013 payout ratio is 89%. We estimate that a 75k RCE customer-centric acquisition in 2013 could decrease the trust's 2014 payout ratio to 69% (from 76%). . KWH added 48.5k RCEs, significantly above our estimate of 30k (30.5k RCE adds last quarter). We believe the acceleration in customer adds is due to the stronger-than-expected ramp-up of the Exclusive Marketing channel (expected to accelerate further as FTR fully ramps up). We have therefore increased our RCE organic adds projections to 676k (from 658k) for 2013 and 775k (from 745k) for 2014. . Given irregular weather patterns and an under-hedged energy position, we don't believe Q4/12 and Q1/13 results are indicative of the trust's earnings power. Moving forward, we are confident in the trust's ability to: (1) gradually pass through recent spikes in prices, (2) add RCEs organically, (3) execute accretive and strategic acquisition, and (4) improve risk management practices. George Doumet (Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada)
george.doumet@scotiabank.com / (514) 350-7788
Crius Energy Trust
Consumer Discretionary - Consumer Products
(KWH.UN-T)[US$]
14May13: C$6.98
1-Year Target: C$10.0 0 CDPU (NTM): C$1.00 CDPU (Curr.): C$ 1 . 0 0 Rating: Sector Outperform
1-Year ROR: 57.6% Yield (Current): 14. 3 % Risk: High