imtesty - Here are some numbers I have been playing with but don't have a good grip on what could potentially transpire.

Currently the mCRPC patients that respond to the 2 most used drugs as SOC, are on them for 2 years plus or minus. I have heard this number, not read it in a study. The top 3 most used drugs for mCRPC have around $6 billion in annual sales. That $6 billion is my starting point. Of the 3 Rockstar patients in this trial, the second cohort, 2 were still on the combo with ZEN3694 at the presentation at Bio Showcase which would have been about week 92. We are now closing in on 2 years for these guys. For the third guy the progress charts from previous presentations suggest he came off of 3694 around week 77 or about 1.5 years. It's important to note that nothing was said about why this third guy came off the drug.

Okay for valuation, with $6 billion in annual sales of the drugs currently being used as SOC and extending those drugs sales for 1.5 to 2 years I come up with $9 to $12 billion in total additional value to these companies at this time. We don't know how long these patients will continue to respond. We don't know if all of the patients respond the same way or if it is a smaller number like 1/2 or 1/4. We do know that Zenith has tested 3694 in conjunction with about 30 existing cancer drug and on average they work about 60% better. We do know that a TNBC trial should begin anytime now in conjunction with a drug that was not on the list of drugs that 3694 was tested with. We do know that once the patients no longer respond to the current standard of care that their longevity is somewhere around 16 weeks, plus or minus. Now how do I value this potential extension of existing drug sales. 

My best guess is that I would start with $6 billion, add some for potential extension of other cancer drug sales and take some away because this is a Phase II drug. After playing with these numbers I came up with between $1.5 to $4.5 billion. That is a huge variation. The single biggest reason for that amount of variation is breast cancer being #2 and lung cancer being #1. The sales of the current SOC drugs to treat those cancers are very large but so far we have no data on how 3694 works with those drugs. If more weight is given to BC and LC my high guess could be very low. It all depends on which company doesn't want to miss out and how badly. Celgene paying $1 billion for a pre-clinical program was music to my ears.

So short answer, $1.5 to $4.5 billion is my guess.

All IMO, dyodd.

tada