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Zenith's BET Inhibitor ZEN-3694 is Currently Being Evaluated in Multiple Oncology Clinical Trials

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Message: Is a Zenith Buyout possible in 2 to 3 months?

GAC thanks again for attending and providing notes and comments re the BB and your encounter with Don.

 

I've been thinking again about Don giving the impression that Zenith would be sold in the next 2 to 3 months and shareholders would be rewarded.

·       GAC - "I asked about Zenith....and he went on at length about trials, speaking glowingly.  I didn't focus in on the details because I don't own any Zenith shares.  He left me with the impression that Zenith is going to be bought out in the next few months, like 2 or 3.....”

 

I happened to be re-reading the Beacon Report for RVX from Nov 14th, 2017 and on page 21 they provide a bar chart of M & A's by phase of a drugs research.

 

They aggregated 2009 to 2013 and show % and for 2014 and 2015 they show #s so I did some guessing because some numbers were not shown.

 

M & A in Healthcare USA

                                       2009 – 2013          2014           2015

                                               %                     %                %

Approved Drug                      54                    30                31

Registration                            2                       3                 4

Phase 3                                  6                      10                7

Phase 2                                 23                     23               20

Phase 1                                  6                      13               15

Discovery/Preclinical              9                      23               22

 

This table does not tell us much but is a start point. It does not show the acquisitions compared to the number of trials at each stage. Of course it raises the questions of prices paid at each stage and the types of indications by phase.

 

However it does give some food for thought. There is a clear shift to early stage buyouts.

 

Acquisitions at the “approved drug” stage are still the most prevalent of any stage but have declined significantly in 2014 and 2105 from over half of all acquisitions to a third.

From an RVX BoM perspective acquisitions at phase 3 represent less than 10% of acquisitions, less than half of phase 2 drugs.

 

In terms of Zenith, buyouts have doubled for phase 1 trial drugs in the most recent 2 reported years.

 

We also know that cancer(s) and epigenetic research is a hot field.

 

The scientific results on the zen3694 trial are not clearly presented to a non-scientifically trained mind. As a business person this always raises flags for me. There is no excuse for this. They should be able to clearly state things like;

  • This is what we know at this stage.
  • These are the surprises vs. our hypothesis.
  • Here are the unknowns.
  • Here is how we plan to resolve the unknowns.
  • Here are the findings which give us hope.
  • Etc.

I do recall 3 people in the trial that seem to be performing well.

 

So as per my original post on this I remain sceptical that “whatever version of Zenith will be sold” … and yet with 37% of the acquisitions in 2015 being at the discovery and phase 1 stages compared to 15% in the 2009 to 2013 period and with cancer being a hot epigenetic field and with (assuming) a solid hypothesis re the MOA of zen3694 making enzalutimide effective after it has lost it’s impact perhaps there is some merit in Don suggesting a buy out.

 

That of course must be counter balanced with Don’s historical track record of statements. I hope Don was not just kidding around. I’d like a payback as I’m sure many of Don’s relatives would. If the payback comes soon I’ll be buying RVX shares for sure at these prices.

 

Zenith buyout net:

·       Based on the Beacon data – it's possible. Also Bear pointed out that Zenith knows things about the trial that we do not know so perhaps there good unknown news?

 

·       Based on track record of Don's various statements over the years– I wonder???.

Prove me wrong Don. I’d love to wear egg on my face.

 

GLTA

Toinv

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