Re: Wikipedia on Investor Relations: Goal is Fair Valuation
in response to
by
posted on
May 27, 2016 09:56AM
Zenith's BET Inhibitor ZEN-3694 is Currently Being Evaluated in Multiple Oncology Clinical Trials
Prior to this recent PP, there were approximately 99 million common shares issued and outstanding. The PP was for approximately 24.5 million common shares. In total, this is about 123.5 million common shares issues and outstanding. At a $1 per share US valuation, that puts the market cap at ~$123.5 million US and prior to the recent PP the market cap was ~$99 million US (again assuming $1 US per share valuation).
Resverlogix, who as we know has taken RVX-208 through Phase 1, 2 and now into BETonMACE Phase 2, is sitting at a market cap of ~$110 million US.
Zenith has zero human clinical trial data disclosed at this point. Their current phase 1 trial is ongoing with results expected Q3 2016. The RVX-208-derived royalties that Zenith Epigenitic Corp is entitled to are dependent upon the uncertain success of RVX-208. Most of Zenith's valuation is dependent upon pre-clinical data and potential. Zenith is competing with several other companies that also have BET inhibitors in clinical trials. BET inhibitors are still an unproven therapeutic (still in Phase 1 or early Phase 2 testing). There is still a risk of lack of efficacy in humans or side effects. Yes, Zenith has novel 2nd/3rd generation scaffolds for their BET inhibitors. But Zenith is just now starting their first Phase 1 trial, whereas other companies BET programs have been in trials for months or years already. The hope is that Zenith's next generation compounds will prove superior, and that their disease choice and patient selection criteria will differentiate them from the competition and set them up for success.
In my opinion, to expect Zenith to have a valuation similar to Resverlogix at this point in time is nonsense. Yes, many of us including me think that Resverlogix valuation should be higher. But its not. The market perception of Resverlogix surely influences the market perception of Zenith. So the Jan 2016 valuation of Zenith at 0.38 US puts the Zenith market cap at ~$38 million US prior to the PP and at ~$47 million US after the PP. This seems pretty reasonable for me until we hear about Phase 1 data.
BearDownAZ