Re: How good does the PEA have to be?
in response to
by
posted on
Apr 13, 2015 11:17PM
Hydrothermal Graphite Deposit Ammenable for Commercial Graphene Applications
Great job as usual jimmer!
I would add the following:
Even with the market selloff today, it is still trading at 27% of pre tax NPV which is within the range I posted a few weeks ago:
They did not post their discount rate directly which is a red flag for me. However, they did release the following:
After-tax NPV of US$562 million with an IRR of 13.9%
The after tax return ranges from US$940 million to US $420 million with a discount rate between 6 - 9%.
So, it seems that they used 7% and this is on the low side.
The biggest issues for me as Jimmer pointed out though are the high capex (almost $1B) and low IRR.
ZEN should have neither of this so would not be surprised to see ZEN trading closer to 30% of NPV after a few weeks/months.
If NPV=$1.5B, share price should be around $7.37
If NPV=$2B, share price should be around $9.84
If NPV=$2.5B, share price should be around $12.30
I do expect the NPV to low ball the price per ton of our graphite but the costs should be in line with real costs and that will be exciting to see. Anything at $2000 or lower should get everyone very excited as that will give us one of the healthiest profit margin of any mining project on earth.
Thanks for bringing this project up Not_A_Rock_Guy, it again highlights the Tiger by the tail we are holding. The only remaining thing bashers are hanging their hat on is the flow sheet issue which to me is a non issue because of the team we have and the government support we have. When this issue is dispelled, I would expect our share price to explode and challenge our previous all time high within a few days.
Good times are around the corner IMO.
Glorieux