Here is what I think is happening.

1) The company is negotiating either a very significant offtake or

2) A take over or

3) A significant investment and here's why I think that.

A lot of people and posts have focused on the negatives but really most of this is strictly nervousness, which I admit from time to time I suffer from also, however lets look at the company statements and the facts.

Price - company says $8500 per ton and regulators have approved that number, so it can only go higher, with added purity etc and will not go lower.

Tonnage - Stringent wittle model says 1.418 million tons of graphite. Again we know that the company has used a stringent method for calculation so again IMO this number can only grow and will not go lower.

Purification - Company has stated repeatedly that a simple and inexpensive process works to give very high purity at least 99.9% material (which is likely worth more than $8500 esp given the crystalinity, particle sizes and SEMs).

Valuation - TakeNotes has estimated that the NPV is $2.5 Billion at a discount rate of 8% (which is fairly conservative as many companies use even lower discount rates).

Mining, Processing and Purification Costs - TN assumed costs of about $2,300 per ton of finished material. This seems more then adequate and is higher than most other graphite company's PEA numbers.

Mine Life - TN has assumed a mine life of 20 years (since there is no value to the NPV of creating a model with a longer mine life than 20 years) with production of 64k tons per year, certainly not flooding the market (with the market for synthetic in excess of 1 million tons per year and growing in the high single or low double digits).

Company has stated repeatedly that the PEA will be released by the end of Q4.

So what does this all mean.

1) I see no reason to modify TN's model based on all the information we currently have and in all likelyhood the NPV could very well be higher based on the above information.

2) I, as many other, believe there has been no operational issues for waiting until the last day of the quarter (or very nearly) to release the PEA and the delay is not due to 'issues' or problems as some would like to have us believe.

3) Simply put the only thing that makes sense to me at the moment is that the company is negotiating some significant deal and has delayed the delivery or the finalization of the PEA to give more time for negotiations to conclude.

I believe we will see either a major announcement in the next few days or the company will release a blockbuster PEA and we could even see both.

Where is the downside at the moment. IMO there is none, there is just a bit more waiting, for which we shall be handsomely rewarded.

Nite

TP