Re: Voisey's Bay
in response to
by
posted on
Sep 09, 2014 12:44PM
Hydrothermal Graphite Deposit Ammenable for Commercial Graphene Applications
Try to find any buyout within the last 7 years that shows the stratospheric numbers that posters are hoping for.
Another question one could ask - find me a deposit in the last 7 years with the DCF of Albany? I think you have to look at this from both sides. Does a $20+ buyout seem 'crazy' with the stock at $2? Perhaps. But the valuation is also somewhat 'crazy' in how much money the owner/producer will generate (given what we know to date of course).When i look at the annual cash flow and profit margin of this project as it stands now it actually seems hard to believe.
Perhaps the reason that investors can't believe the story or wrap their head around the story is because there has never been a project like this in the graphite world - ever. If this was a gold, silver or base metals project we could all 'accept' the numbers mentally in a easier way because we are used to it. This is very unique.
Another thing to note about the DCF model, adding $1,000 to the average selling price adds $450 Million to the NPV. That is $7 per share. So for every $1K increase in selling price it adds $7 per share in value. From that, we can see why it is very important and prudent to delay the PEA and try and get closer to the 99.99% market value compared to the 99.95% value. Above the 99.95% sits the $20-$30K per tonne market, the golden zone if you will. The closer we can get to that with minimal additional cost the higher the average selling price will be and thus higher valuation.
I agree that we are in a different economic world than the DF timeframe, but conversely we are also in a different market than the base metasl DF was in. And let's face it, everyone of us here has had a crash course in the high purity graphite market in the last 18-24 months. This is new to everyone.