Re: NPV vs In Situ Value
in response to
by
posted on
Sep 01, 2014 09:14AM
Hydrothermal Graphite Deposit Ammenable for Commercial Graphene Applications
Personally I don't think the value of the deposit is as relavent in the case of ZEN as it might be in the case of traditional metals deposit of say nickel, gold, silver or zinc. There the extraction costs and product prices are fairly standard and I think it makes more sense in these cases to price the deposit at some fixed percentage of its potential value.
If you look at ZEN's the Albany graphite deposit I believe it makes more sense to use a DCF model since the extraction and purification costs are likely to be very low. Also the market pricing has a high degree of sensitivity depending on the end user. Using the generally quoted $5,000 to $30,000/ton and pluging this into a DCF model results in a wide range of values.
Using just $8500 to $20,000 at a 10% discount and using TakeNotes model produces astronomical values IMHO.
Since all the mine startup and operating costs are factored into the base case of $8,500, then price increases above $8,500 go to the bottom line and quickly increase the NPV.
$8,500/ton = $2.0 billion NPV
$13,300/ton = $4.0 billion NPV
$18,100/ton = $6.0 billion NPV
For these two reasons I see the NPV approach to valuing ZEN's Albany deposit as making more sense.
Don't get me wrong, I don't expect the company will sell at these astronomical values, but I do beleive that $20 would be a steal and at the low end of the valuation calculation.
Getting a very high price for the company will depend on creating demand: 1) by showing end users will buy the product for a high price and 2) having more than one suitor who wants the company.