NPV vs In Situ Value
posted on
Sep 01, 2014 08:19AM
Hydrothermal Graphite Deposit Ammenable for Commercial Graphene Applications
NPV is based on current and future cash disbursement and cash inflow. For ZEN, using the following paramaters from my friend:
Technical Parameters | |
Average Grade | 3.14% |
Cutoff Grade | 0.60% |
Reserve Level at Cutoff | 45,200,000 |
Contained Value | 1,418,000 |
Stripping Ratio | 1.12 |
Ore Production Rate (t/d) | 7,000 |
Mill Recovery | 90% |
Operating days/year | 355 |
Mine Life (years) | 20 |
Financial Parameters | |
Current Graphite Price ($/t) | 8,500 |
Mine Operating Cost ($/t) | 20 |
Mill Operating Cost ($/t) | 35 |
Total Operating Cost ($/t) | 55 |
Mine Capital Cost | 100,000,000 |
Mill Capital Cost | 150,000,000 |
Total Capital Cost | 250,000,000 |
Working Capital | 25,000,000 |
Real Risk-adjusted Discount Rate (%) | 10% |
I get an NPV, which stands for Net Present Value, of $2.3B. Based on these parameters, this is what a standard formula would value ZEN. In a take situation, we may be worth $2.3B, however, let's say we get someone to pay us half of what this calculation says we are worth. That would still be $20 per share if our share float does not change!
If we look at In Situ valuation, that formula looks at the value of the ore in the ground. In ZEN's case, using the numbers in their resource calculations, we get:
In Situ Value =Value per tonne X tonnes of purified graphite
which yields
In Situe Value=$8500 X 1,418,000
In Situe Value= $12,053,000,000
Let's call it $12B to make life easy.
In a take out situation, we would get a % of the In Situe value, usually somewhere between 5-10% for good economical deposits. When we look at all the criterias for ZEN:
Very high margins
Proximity to infrastructure
Low Capex
Safe jurisdiction
To mention just a few, we are probably looking at a take over closer to 10% if management has any decent negotiation skills. That would be a value of $1.2B or $20 per share if our share float does not change.
Now, is there downside to these calculations? The biggest one I see is the $8500. Because of the opacity of the graphite market, it is hard for everyone to know how much we can rely on this number. We have heard many scientific and annecdotal evidence that this number is fair, maybe even conservative but until we have an offtake, a buy out or some other event where this number can be relied upon 100%, this number is subject to change and this is probably one of the biggest factor why our share price is where it is.
I take comfort in Dr. Chahar's comments, the NRC research and grants, the regulators permitting the use of $8500, the historical range of synthetic graphite from $7000 to $20000 to make my investment decision that $8500 is a fair number and that ZEN is a safe bet from here with a good chance at a 10 bagger ROI.
ZEN has been very quiet and combined with the summer doldrums and the Cliff's situation has resulted in a severly depressed share price vis à vis our value proposition. Now that September is here, I strongly believe that news can come any day. Those that have not taken advantage of the low share price over the summer should consider doing so very shortly as these prices will not last long IMO.
I coined the term ZEN to TEN a long time ago but believe that our share price is destined to $20 and for those with the foresight to see through all the noise, there is a huge opportunity in front of our eyes!
Glorieux