Valuation Summary
in response to
by
posted on
Jun 08, 2014 11:52AM
Hydrothermal Graphite Deposit Ammenable for Commercial Graphene Applications
Hello everyone
In response to the request to state valuation criteria I would like to submit the following:
1.4M T as per the 43-101
$5-6K/T world average price used by Roth as well.
55M shares out, 60m FD
Given the above one can derive: 1.4M x 6K /60M FD = $140.00 per share.
A five percent take out would be : $7.00, ten percent $14.00
This is a simple baseline that does not take many other factors into account.
The model that I favour subtracts a healthy amount for the build/infrastructure, uses a higher base price for the grade of graphite and includes the fully diluted share pool.
1.4Mt x $14,000/T high end graphite selling price. - $350M for Cap Ex /60M FD = $320.83/Share rounded to $321.00.
A five percent take out would be $ 16.05 and ten percent take out would be $32.10.
Please note that the price per ton and quality is the main issue as that focuses the business case. One can run a number of permutations at different graphite price points to see the bigger range. I am also using very conservative cap ex estimates.
Most importantly though we can clearly see from the public numbers that the base case for Zen, especially in light of Friday's close, is very positive. Start putting in higher graphite amounts and we really start to see the buyout rise.
Additional factors to think about:
low cost for extraction, NaOH float "IF" that cost is low a modest $1500/T even at average prices Zen can make $3500- 4500/T. With a potential 50K/yr production $225M Gross revenue. This is very conservative but think about any mining project, anywhere, that can potentially payoff cap ex in one operational year. -This has been stated before but needs to be reinforced-
The life of mine can easily be 20 years.
Graphite is priced in USD.
The logistics surrounding Zen are excellent and should help mitigate costs.
AE has stated repeatedly that they are not miners but explorers. However, any mining firm would jump at the chance to own this lucrative high margin property.
During the LOM we may well see the demand emerge for PBNR requiring super high purity graphite. In which case one can use $30-35K/T in current dollars to determine valuation.
"waste" material may well be of use commercially as secondary sources of income. Also all that overburden would go a long way to build infrastructure for the ROF. -Many board members have commented on this namely Hoov-
Should the off take agreement reach sufficient price heights this would then expand the deposit as the economic viability likewise increases.
Common graphite uses in batteries and refractories needs to be looked at through the prism of near term needs, many here have stated Tesla and the gigafactories, however synergies with 3-D printing, Graphene applications, PBNR and things not yet conceived may well make graphite as ubiquitous tomorrow as copper is today. -Again stated by other but should be kept in mind-
AE and the rest own a significant proportion of the float. They will not sell cheaply nor can someone proceed with a hostile takeover due to the large ownership percentage.
In closing it sickens me that "traders" are using boards/social media to put enough of a scare into people to make them sell cheap and/or punch out Stops. However one must always take responsibility for one's trades and not doing your own deep due diligence is not acceptable for a stock like Zen. Weak hands be gone!
GL to all. This is simply a great investment and I for one can do without further drama until Zen releases the PEA, an off take and, one day -hopefully soon- a buyout offer.
Cheers
mongo