Time to regroup...
posted on
Feb 27, 2014 08:20PM
Hydrothermal Graphite Deposit Ammenable for Commercial Graphene Applications
Boy, did I discover this forum at the wrong time, or what?!
After being here for just over 1 day, i have read through more back-and-forth jibber-jabber than i had when I reviewed months worth of post when i was catching up on the AG board last night.
The issues that seem to have spurned this whole fiasco was the initial unecessary flagging of posts. From there there has been a debate about the validity of using $16k/tonne when analysing the Albany deposit.
From the RSGroup graphene release:
"RS Group is offering high quality natural graphite at $16,000 per ton."
Again, if you read the release there is no verification that the buyer has agreed to the $16k price, as such, there is a legitimate question to be raised about using $16k in ZEN valuation models. This is where the debate is.
There has been discussions I've seen stating that ZEN's graphite is of better quality than that of Sri Lanka's (unconfirmed). If so, we may see these numbers come out in a later report to veirfy, but until then it is best to stick with the $8,500 provided in the 43-101.
Also, there is the issue of the nature of the commodity in which we are discussing. For the most part in valuations, gold is gold...graphite is not graphite. Even in comparing vein/lump/synthetic. Price will all be determined by end users expected use of the material and of course how much demand is there for it.
Assuming demand for the entire 1.4M tonnes @ $16,000/tonne at this stage seems ambitious, given we have yet to receive 5k samples, user feedback, or any other items to confirm ALbany graphite is to be valued at this price to date. Even when we do, it will be difficult to gauge a buyout basing a constant price for the entire 1.4M tonnes, as the eventual end users of the material may very well vary. How much of this high-quality natural graphite can the market absorb initially at $16k prices. Of course, that is something that will likely be factored into discounts factors offered by a buyout entity. As to anyones guess at this point what that will be is simply that, a guess.
As such, it is best to stay grounded and work with what we have as opposed to pie-in-the-sky (as of now) theories. And what we currently know we have is 1.4M tonnes of highly pure natural graphite, with an independantly assessed (43-101) value of $8,500/tonne. Government grants issued to further fund research/development of the deposit (with the initial funding announced prior to ZEN even having a 43-101). We also know we have a highly experienced management team, an industry expert who has joined as a Director (Dr. C) who has gone on record of voicing his personal opinions of this deposits quality, a professor who has thouroughly analyzed the graphite and the nature of the deposit and has publicly backed what ZEN has been preaching, and an industry expert to develop a market overseas. Now, tell me how many junior mining companies, without a PEA even, can you think of that can boast that.?
I do not mean to ruffle any feathers/point figures/choose sides with this post, rather, i purely intend to offer my suggestion of how we can overcome this past days issues and put them behind us. It is time to re-group, focus on what we have to date and operate effectively as an online community for what appears to be an exciting ride into ZEN's PEA phase.
Cheers, D