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Message: ZEN prediction

message just posted on the other board for info.

goldhunter

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Wintersun,

First, I have a fair chunk of ZEN, so it's obvious that I would like my investment to appreciate. There is nothing wrong for saying good things about the companies you have your money in, as long as they are based on facts. It would not be good for the company (hence the SP) if we create (or set) a very high expectation such as grade, purity, cost to produce the required purity, size of the deposit and finally the potential profit for future operation.

So far so good :

- grade of 4,5, or 6% is reasonably good;

- purity, at least from initial indication, of 99.96% is excellent after processing (cost is still unknown). The raw ore is no where near that number, but if the process is simple and cheap to convert to the extremely high purity stuff then we would have a nice Gr ore to work with.

- next key piece of info is the size of the deposit and how much it would cost to bring it up above ground. We have 9 holes + 1 (hole #10). In the big scheme of thing, 10 holes are not enough to provide any reliable estimate for the size of the deposit (and the company says so). All we can do is have some educated guess, based on available information (which would come from everybody, who has a reliable/useful piece to contribute to the collective wisdom...hype does not help here). I am trying to do this for my own DD, and would be willing to share the info when it looks reasonable (and conservative enough).

I would try to avoid setting up too high an expection, which would unlikely to be met, and which is not really required for a profitable operation. There is no need to claim the best of everything in the world (since there will be better discoveries from other companies), e.g. best grade, best purity, the largest deposit , etc...As indicated, we only need a prospect for a reasonable profit when the company goes into operation. To begin with, I would suggest the following.

- A deposit large enough for 20-30 years (the company will find some additional tonnage along the way). A gigantic deposit is not needed.

- production: let's start some 20,000 tonnes/yr, rather than 100,000 tonnes/yr.

- profit margin: every $1000/tonne profit would yield $20M, which is not bad a sum for profit for a small company. A $5k/tonne profit margin would yield $100M/yr which is huge in my standard. In addition, the operation can always be scaled up, say 2x, 4x, etc., if warranted

ZEN is doing fine so far, and the new results from hole #10 seem to indicate some expansion of the deposit toward the south end. Eye balling the pictures gives some comfort, but we will need to wait for a couple of weeks for the Lab to deliver its verdict which would be required some initial guess (yes, it would be just a guess from our part). If the Lab says grade is about 5-6% for some 300m, then we can have a beer or two at the local pub.

Next thing that I would look for is the results of step out hole(s) to the west and/or to the east of that fan of holes (9,8, 5 and 4). With those we can have some idea about the thickness, hence the volume and tonnage, of that piece of Kobe steak.

Cheers,

goldhunter

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Apr 09, 2013 10:04AM
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