Canaccord commentary on XCITE ENERGY (V-XEL)
posted on
Apr 27, 2010 08:47PM
Edit this title from the Fast Facts Section
XCITE ENERGY (V-XEL) $1.05 n/c
We spend some time today with Charles Lucas-
Clements, who is the Director of Strategy and Business
Development at Xcite Energy, one of the stories that is going
to become front-page news one way or another some
time late summer.
Charles, who is an Irishman, born in Libya and married
to an Australian is typical of the wandering oil man who
has worked in places like Angola, Malaysia, Oman, Abu
Dhabi, Pakistan and even relatively safe places like Houston
and of course London and Aberdeen.
He gives us a personal update on Xcite Energy and this
is a story that has somewhat frustrated us up until quite
recently...imagine a story that could have 700 million barrels
of oil in the North Sea or better and yet no one has
heard of it.
Oh well, that’s being taken care of now as executives of
Xcite Energy are crossing the country getting their story
told and the volume in the market shows that some people
are listening.
Still to us, this is an intriguing kind of story where
much of the company management had worked together
for Conoco also tackling a big North Sea project many
years ago and now once again, reunited. But still the idea
of working on a project for up to eight years before that
one really big well is drilled, still boggles the mind.
Rupert Cole had met with Keith Schaefer, editor of
the Oil and Gas Investments yesterday and subscribers
of the oil and gas investments newsletter read an intriguing
report by Keith Schaefer last night. Keith
wrote: “Unfortunately, I have to report to subscribers
that it appears I got one rather important point wrong in
my initial write up on Xcite. They WILL RAISE MONEY
IN THE FALL, at least $25 million in equity, according to
CFO Rupert Cole. Every other part of the story was the
same – even a bit better actually, as this first well in
summer 2010 will tap into a section of the east side of
the reservoir that they believe is productive but has not
been taken into account in their estimates of potential
reserves. Their Bentley field project has a massive potential
to hold 900 million barrels of original oil in place
(OOIP), about 105% of the entire North Sea.”
Schaefer continues, “The Bentley well is spudding
early July, with initial flow rates expected to be reported
in mid September. On a well that independent
consultants give a 90% chance of success, I hope the
stock would be trading $3-$5 at that time. But if the
market knows the company will issue shares, or raise
equity, then they will sell a stock down to get the new
stock as cheaply as possible. In traders lingo, we say
the equity issue is overhanging the market, or capping
the stock.”
Schaefer adds at the end this intriguing paragraph:
“In any event, subscribers should be aware that there is
one more equity raise coming in the fall, and I think that
will prevent the stock from having its big run until after
this issue is completed. How big could that run be? I
knew you would ask me that. If they could prove up a
reserve of 200 million barrels, the market could value
that at $10/bbl, which would be a $2 billion valuation on
say...175 million shares out, which equals $11.42 a
share. Like I say, when making projections it’s important
to have one foot planted firmly in the air.”