Canaccord AN INTERVIEW WITH RICHARD SMITH CEO, XCITE ENERGY
posted on
Dec 22, 2009 02:59PM
Edit this title from the Fast Facts Section
November 11, 2009
AN INTERVIEW WITH RICHARD SMITH
CEO, XCITE ENERGY
(As of November 3, 2009)
We’re here with Richard Smith who’s leading the charge for
a company called Xcite Energy and needless to say there are
a few followers of the company that hope excitement is
about to follow.
David Pescod: Richard maybe it’s best for you to tell us
just what kind of a resource you’re working on in the North
Sea because we’ve seen numbers varying as low as 100
million barrels or as high as 200 million barrels.
Richard Smith: On a 1P, 2P and 3P basis the current numbers
being used now come from the Competent Person’s
Report issued at the beginning of the year are circa 100 to
160 million barrels. Since that report has been put out we
have reprocessed and re-interpreted the 3D seismic on the
whole field, which has increased management’s view to
about 160 million barrels of 2P recoverable reserves with
an upside of 220 million barrels and more with enhanced
oil recovery.
DP: Now you’ve come up with these numbers based on
some previous drilling?
RS: There’s been a total of 5 wells drilled on the block.
One by Xcite, three by Conoco and one by Amoco. We
have all the data and the information from the previous
wells together with our own well, and we also have information
on the well that was drilled by StatoilHydro on an
analogous field, called Bressay, just to the North of ours.
They drilled their well about 6 months after our well and we
have a data exchange agreement with them. We also have
the information on the other Bressay wells having dealt
with Chevron before the Bressay field was acquired by StatoilHydro.
The oil in Bressay is identical to Bentley oil in all
material respects and the reservoir sand is very similar for
porosity and permeability.
DP: I guess the good news is that you own almost 100% of
the field and the bad news is that this is low quality crude.
Xcite Energy
David Pescod 780-408-1750 Debbie Lewis 780-408-1748 Fax: 780-408-1501 Page 2
RS: Yes we own 100% of the field. As for quality, I think
what you have to say is that it is bio- degraded, and you
have to use downhole electrical pumps to bring it to the
surface. It is acidic, which is normal, but has no sulphur,
no nasty metals and has no wax. So it is a nice heavy oil.
When blended with a small amount of Brent you would
have relatively small price discounts. One of the very
strong advantages of this oil is that it has a very high diesel
cut. It has virtually no gasoline cut. For the European
market a high diesel cut is very attractive and it is a good
feedstock for refineries.
It also has useful properties for transformer oils and certain
coking requirements. Our independent marketing
study has reported a probable discount to Brent, before
blending, of 12% reducing to 8% over field life. However
we are in discussion with an international major whose
trading division has approached us to market and trade
our oil on a risk and incentivised basis. In return they
would provide an element of equity and debt financing for
the next well and the early production system. These are
on-going discussions and we intend to pursue this with
other potential partners also before agreeing on a deal
that can be announced.
DP: There’s one observer watching the company at this
point suggesting that the stock could be anywhere between
a 50% and 500% gain over the coming six months
and they suggest that it all depends on managements’
ability to wheel and deal because you need money, you
may need partners and for all they know there might even
be a takeover down the road, your thoughts?
RS: Well we do need money at a project level and the fact
that Bentley field has now moved into the project development
phase is important. We have financing at a corporate
level to be able to run the business, but obviously what
we are now in the process of doing is raising the project
money to bring the field into production through the alliance
structure and partners, which has the potential to
enable us to retain 100% of the equity in the Bentley field.
In the current market we shall require an element of equity
as well as debt financing and we’re in the process of securing
a part of that through the alliance at the moment.
In terms of the uplift in value, if you actually look at the
market capital of the company at the moment and the potential
recoverable reserves, the value of the oil in the
ground on a market cap basis is something like 35-40
cents a barrel.
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David Pescod 780-408-1750 Debbie Lewis 780-408-1748 Fax: 780-408-1501 Page 3
DP: Well it is pretty obvious you have an exciting 3, 4 ,5
months ahead of yourself here as this company gets going
but let’s ask the underlying basic question, what do
you see for the price of oil down the road?
RS: When we did our competent person’s report we also
had a marketing study done to look at the discounts and
future oil prices; we are using a base of $80 a barrel with
a small inflation rate from 2014, which is when we are
anticipating getting the field into production. With the
Statoil Bressay field just to the north of us, their chief
executive just made the announcement that they are
comfortable to go forward with heavy oil development on
the North Sea on an exactly comparable field, with a requirement
of about $70 a barrel.
We’re currently using oil prices close to the $80 that
we’re forecasting going forward, but we are robust on
Bentley down to about $60. So unless there is a fundamental
decline in oil price again to the $30/$40 level,
which is not matched by the cost side, we have a robust
development.
DP: Okay we like to end these interviews with our favourite
question, if you had to recommend a stock other than
your own, and of course we prefer stocks that double,
what would be your pick?
RS: Sterling Resources, which is a gas play with a similar
size field in terms of recoverable reserves if you take a
gas to oil equivalent ratio; they have about a 100 million
barrel equivalent field. They have recently chosen to go
the farm down route with a major utility supplier in
Europe called RWE. RWE is now going to take over as
operator after Sterling took the field to a point where the
reserves were sufficiently de-risked. They drilled a vertical
well, exactly the same as we drilled just recently, and
then this year drilled a horizontal well, which is what we
are doing in the next few months. After this second well,
RWE bought a major part the field for a price per barrel
equivalent to $15 per barrel for 1P, $10 per barrel for 2P
and $2 per barrel for contingent resources.
DP: Thank you very much!
We now have a reserves definition of contingent resources
development pending, which has a 70% probability
of commercial success, which substantially de-risks
this asset. Normal industry valuation comparables at this
stage of reserve definition gives you typically 2$-3$ a barrel
in the ground.
So in that context there is a multiple uplift in value even if
you only got back to typical business comparables today,
before taking account the value uplift after the next well
that should get us to 2P reserves.
DP: While you have to wheel and deal, raise money, get
partners in the next coming months the big date that most
people are looking forward to is when you actually drill
the next big well.
RS: The next well is planned to be drilled in February or
March of next year. We already have a contractor and alliance
partner on board to do that, which is Fugro. Fugro is
a substantial technical services company based in Holland,
which has a Euro 3 billion market cap. They have
just built a drill ship called the ”Synergy” and we have a
Heads of Agreement currently being turned into a contract
which provides for them to come onto the field on a risked
basis. They will effectively take performance and operational
risk with their unit and the weather risk, plus a reduced
day rate equating to a material percentage of the
cost of the well on a risked basis. This key partner in the
alliance is already on board.
We already made the announcement and the Synergy unit
will be coming on our field within the next few weeks, to
drill a pilot hole to test the sea bed conditions for a future
jack-up rig deployment on the field for an early production
system. That is a service that typically would cost 1.0$ to
1.5$ million and this is also part of the risk services that
they are putting into the alliance. We expect further partners
to join the alliance in the coming months that would
further reduce the actual cash cost of the well for Xcite.