Research Report by Arbuthnot Securities and quick highlights about XEL
posted on
Dec 22, 2009 02:57PM
Edit this title from the Fast Facts Section
Xcite Energy Ltd (XEL TSX-V & AIM)
Shares Outstanding: 71.5M
Market cap of 53.6M
Click For: Share Capital Ownership
Website: www.xcite-energy.com
Click For: Briefing Notes
Key management: Chairman of the company is the Ex President of ConocoPhillips
Pure oil play
Resource of 160 MMbbls+
Undervalued asset: Valuation in XEL of 0.33$ per barrel @ 0.75$ share price
Industry benchmark at same resource development: 3-5$ per barrel
Fugro Agreement:
1. Fugro will fund a material part of the well costs – final proportion depends on the well costs, but not less than 1/3 of total cost
2. Effectively a free farm-in for Xcite, as no equity in Bentley is being given in exchange.
3. The win for Fugro is a commitment to use them for the EPS wells/work programme, if we choose to do this. Also it potentially opens up a new business stream for them.
4. It is a turn-key solution for Xcite, with Fugro taking effective weather risk on the vessel and associated services.
5. Fugro is a Euro 3 billion market cap company and, therefore, a powerful founding member of the ‘Bentley Alliance’, with more members to follow.
6. The drill ship is DP (dynamically positioned) so it can work in up to Force 9 weather; this means no anchoring or mob/demob issues that can be so expensive in the North Sea.
7. They are proving the vessel capability in 7-10 days time by drilling the technical borehole on the field.
8. Plan is to drill the 9/3b-R horizontal production well at the end of Q1 2010, to obtain oil flow from the reservoir and Reserves status.
9. Convincing a service provider / contractor to take risk in this way is more significant than an oil company doing it, since it is not their core business at present. This has been a business objective for Xcite since it was formed in 2003.
Development Highlights:
Ø Xcite goal is to drill an early production well in the 1st Quarter of 2010
Ø RPS Energy gives 90% chance of success for next well
Ø Fugro as undertaken to drill & test the 2010 horizontal production well
Ø Fugro will pay a material cost of the next well (about 10M$) in exchange of future work on Bentley Field if the well is successful
Ø Based on the results of the last vertical well, the subsequent analysis of the 3D seismic interpretation and the close analogue comparison to Bressay Field we are considered at 1 low risk well from reserve status
Ø The current base-case recovery is 160 to 324MMbbls with the up-side structure
Ø XEL is anticipating Cash Flow from 1st well in 2010 and reserve status
Note that the industry benchmark for reserve is 10 to 15$ per barrel while Xcite is currently trading at 0.33$ per barrel
Management:
Richard Smith – Chief Executive Officer
Ø Over 25 years engineering and business management experience in onshore and offshore oil and gas.
Ø Former programme director (CEO of Business Group) for Halliburton/Granherne.
Rupert Cole – Chief Financial Officer
Ø Over 20 years experience in corporate finance, focused on the UK oil and gas sector.
Ø Six years as finance director for Harpur, an international downstream service provider to major oil companies.
Stephen Kew – Exploration and Development Director
Ø 30 years development engineering and project management experience in upstream oil and gas.
Ø 25 years experience with Conoco in the UK and internationally, including work on Block 9/3b.
Roger Ramshaw – Chairman
Ø Experienced executive manager with over 30 years of domestic and international experience in operations, project and commercial activity in the petroleum industry, including heavy oil.
Ø Former Chairman & Managing Director of ConocoPhillips (UK) Ltd. and former President of Conoco Venezuela Ltd.
Project:
Bentley Field (100%)
160km East of Shetlands in the Notht Sea
Bentley Field Potential Recoverable Resources( After 3D Seismic Data)
Structure
Conventional Recovery (MMbbls)
Low Case
Base Case
High Case
Down-Side Structure
73
123
168
Most-Likely
109
160
220
Up-Side Structure
165
235
324
Field Highlights:
900 MMbbls STOIIP (Stock Tank Oil Initially In Place)
Base Case for the Most-Likely Structure is 160 MMbbls
100-300 MMbbls Recoverable with conventional techniques
Up to 500 MMbbls with Enhanced Oil Recovery
2007 Succesfull Flow Test (Produced Oil @125bbls/day from a 50 foot completion with very high skin)
Bressay vs Bentlay Field
Analogy to Bressay Field ( 6KM of Bentley 9/3b)
Similar Heavy Oil Characteristics
Full development of the field in 2015 (Bressay)
Bresay tested 3200 bbls/day on a Horizontal Well vs circa 300 bbls/day on a Vertical Well
On a Horizontal Well Xcite flow rate target is 1500 to 3000 bbls/day