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Message: CAODC Forecast for 2008: predicts sub-economic condition

CAODC Forecast for 2008: predicts sub-economic condition

posted on Nov 09, 2007 07:40AM

I have the PDF of this CAODC paper, however cannot copy the tables to text at this time.  I will try to post the remainer of this document in due time.   Anyone inteserted in it I will email to you.

 

Sorry this has very little to do with are WWF discussion however it will shed a little light as to what drilling in Alberta and Canada will be like in 2008.  Most of you may have already read this, pardon me if it's redundent.

 

CAODC FORECAST OF DRILLING ACTIVITY — 2008

 For Immediate Release

 Calgary, Alberta (October 29, 2007)

 The Canadian Association of Oilwell Drilling Contractors (CAODC) has released a forecast of drilling activity for 2008, which shows a dramatic reduction in field activity.

 The forecast is dominated by a continuation of weak natural gas prices, high operational costs and a very strong Canadian dollar. These conditions are important because the Western Canada
Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) is gas prone.

 Average fleet utilization is projected to be 34% for the year 2008. This is a sub-economic condition. It is well below the average annual utilization level of 50% which is required to pay the costs associated with a functioning industry.

 Importantly, the Association believes first quarter activity will only reach a utilization level of 50%. The winter drilling season, normally the busiest time for drilling and service activity, has been lost due to the uncertainty created by the Alberta royalty review. An average of 445 rigs out of a fleet of 890, will be drilling. The last time utilization was at, or lower than, this level was 1992.

 During spring break-up, 132 rigs or 15% of the fleet will be active, followed by a slow summer. During the third quarter, 30% of the fleet is projected to be at work — or 261 rigs out of 870. The last quarter of 2008 will have 344 rigs drilling on average, a 40% utilization.

 Assuming no material change in average well depths — shown as 7.4 days per well — the forecast will generate 13,735 wells in 2008.

 Operating days are projected to total 101,640 for the year. Compared with 2007, this will be a decline of 16% from the 121,309 days shown for 2007. (The updated 2007 forecast is also
attached.)

 In 2006, industry completed 22,298 wells. This will fall to 16,393 in 2007 or a drop of 26%— almost 6,000 fewer wells. Combined with the 2008 well projection of 13,735, the drop from 2006 will be 38%. Drilling days decline from 158,427 in 2006 to 101,640 in 2008, or 36%.

 The price assumptions in the forecast are $80.00 per barrel (US$) for oil and $6.50 per Mcf (CD$) for natural gas.

-Additional factors are either raised by, or included in this forecast. No specific account has been given to the recent royalty announcement by the Alberta government, beyond the uncertainty
generated by the process that has resulted in significant declines in the first quarter. As operators continue to analyse the impact of the royalty review changes to their businesses, revisions to the
CAODC forecast will be released.

 Also of note, natural gas production levels from western Canada may have peaked. Production has declined by 1.0 Bcf per day in 2007 when compared with 2006 (16 Bcf per day to 15 Bcf per day).
This comes as a result of the drilling slowdown, primarily experienced in 2007. The slowdown in gas drilling will continue in 2008.

 Each Bcf per day in lost production costs governments $400 million in royalties at current prices and fiscal regime. Year to date land bonus payments paid to the Alberta government have fallen
$870 million in 2007, compared with 2006 for conventional production. An additional $1.3 billion
has been lost to Alberta crown sales for oil sands leases.

 The last time drilling activity averaged 34% was during the seven year industry collapse —
1986-92. While drilling activity in Canada declines, the actual US land rig count is rising — 1,700 rigs compared with 1,400 drilling rigs running two years ago. This year, Canadian drilling
contractors will remove 30 rigs from the fleet. The last comparable drop was in 1988. Most of the Canadian rigs removed from the fleet will be sent to the US, along with a number of new
builds that have been sent south already this year.

 On average, a drilling rig in Canada employs 25 people, with an additional 50 workers coming onto the location at different times during the operation. The drop in active drilling rigs from 2006 to 2008 translates into 15,000 fewer field jobs. Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) has estimated the full employment generator from active drilling rigs at 135 per unit. Using their
employment estimate, this means the job losses amount to 27,000 people, compared with 2006.

 The Canadian Association of Oilwell Drilling Contractors is a trade association that represents the contract drilling and service rig industry across Canada. The membership in the Association is
comprised of 51 drilling contractors, 5 Atlantic Division offshore contractors, 75 service rig contractors and 143 associate members.

For more information, contact:

Don Herring  CAODC

800, 540 – 5 Avenue SW

Calgary AB T2P 0M2

Phone: (403) 264-4311

Fax: (403)263-3796

Email: dherring@caodc.ca

Nancy Malone

CAODC

800, 540 – 5 Avenue SW

Calgary AB T2P 0M2

Phone: (403) 264-4311

Fax: (403)263-3796

Email: nmalone@caodc.ca

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