Ian I think you are way low. Even one refinery has to be worth 5$ out of the gate on momentum alone in a very short period. If you start to add another refinery and ethanol that price  triples, again on momentum. Yes there is the time delay factor on the actual building of these and I believe there will be a pull back. However momentum is such a powerful force here. Perhaps as important to any serious price appreciation that these factors will have is a news release of any major brookerage coverage. Then look out.

On a slightly different topic. With respect to the Libyian deal. Did I not read in someones posting that the official winner of the refinery deal will not be announced until Dec. 9. If that is the case then none of these upcoming news releases would or could  pertain to this being a done deal with WWF. Please correct me if I am wrong but any rumours about a "done refinery deal would have to be in Tunisa.