Re: WTG's 1 year Target Est: Any Thoughts?
in response to
by
posted on
May 01, 2012 02:55PM
Edit this title from the Fast Facts Section
nt300; what WTG was at prior to the acquisition of Century is meaningless. As I'm sure you know, in excess of 94% of WTG shares at that time were closely held. The SP could be whatever they wanted it to be. The CMM acquisition caused significant dilution for major WTG shareholders and the SP was then able to more freely float. Today's price is more or less dictated by the free market.
The 'altitude' of the SP is, IMHO, due to the street's view of WTG management, majority SH makeup and their history. They are being punished as a byproduct of no analyst coverage and hence no pick-up.
It's been said before: management has to deliver on their promises. I'm not saying they haven't...time will tell. So far, none of the PR this year have been negative. In fact, "normally" the news we've had would have lifted SP steadily. However, market is in a show me the money for junior's in general...but especially for WTG. It takes time and delivery to build trust - it must be earned!
I agree, we have the properties, the producing mines and exploration licences to potentially reach much loftier SP's. I think that if WTG show they are on track with Q1 financials this will help alot. However, I'm not sure that they'll show we are on track. There have been some issues at Lamaque with ore processing limitations. Although these were fixed, it wasn't until the beginning of Q2. Recalling the 26 March NR:
"With long-hole dyke stopes continuing to provide increased ore tonnages, the Company expects to see even higher production once an upgrade to a high-lift C4 conveyor in the crushing system is completed. This conveyor has constrained crushed and milled tonnages to 1200 tpd. This optimization has already begun and is scheduled for completion by mid-April, when it will permit increased production to more than 2000 tpd."
Q2 should see us on track at Lamaque for 14,000 ounces. I think we'll be a fair bit under this for Q1...
All that to say...SP should probably be around $1 based on current guidance, operating costs and management trust by the street. We could go up to this fairly quickly if the upcoming financials (due no later than May 15) show we are on target (and that Q1 Lamaque was the result of normal startup hiccups).
If management can hit guidance for 2012 - with the updated NI 43-101's at Lamaque and Nasedkino together with commercial production at Lamaque...
For reference; recall Carib's production table and comments (as a reminder - the warrants are exercisable at $1.50). One further guess...if we are at 150K for 2013...in excess of $2.50 would be reasonable IMO:
"I’m not expecting anywhere near 14,000 oz of production from Lamaque in Q1 2012. According to their Feb. 21 news release, production jumped from 500 tpd to 1600 tpd in mid February. That means that production for the first half of Q1 was probably in the range of 500 tpd from the flats with a grade close to 2 g/tonne. The second half of the quarter should average at least 1600 tpd, and with a large contribution from the North Wall with its higher grades, the average grade should increase to 3 g/tonne. These are my projections for gold production this year based on the information provided by WTG to the nearest 1,000 ounces:
|
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Total |
Lamaque |
8,000 |
14,000 |
16,000 |
18,000 |
56,000 |
San Juan |
6,000 |
7,000 |
8,000 |
8,000 |
29,000 |
Savkino |
1,000 |
3,000 |
8,000 |
8,000 |
20,000 |
Totals |
15,000 |
24,000 |
32,000 |
34,000 |
105,000 |
Annual Rate |
60,000 |
96,000 |
128,000 |
136,000 |
|
As we get into the second half of 2012, we should be a 100,000 oz/year producer, but even at 60,000 oz/yr we are currently grossly undervalued.
If we produce 32,000 oz in Q3 then there is a very good chance that the warrants that were recently extended could be in the money by the November expiry date, and I think this is what the company and the warrant holders are counting on."